{
  "abstract": "To our knowledge, this paper provides the first systematic quantitative evaluation of the ICT Accumulation-Manipulation-Distribution (AMD) model on CME E-Mini NASDAQ-100 futures (NQ). The AMD model proposes that institutional participants structure intraday price delivery in three phases: overnight accumulation in the Asian session, a deliberate false breakout during London, and directional delivery to the opposing liquidity pool during the New York morning session. Using four years of real 15-minute OHLCV data from Databento (January 2022 to July 2026), we operationalize the AMD rules into a strict mechanical strategy and analyze the statistical properties of the resulting signal across N = 484 manipulation signal days using chi-square testing, Benjamini-Hochberg multiple comparisons correction, and regime-conditional analysis. Three principal findings emerge. First, the AMD manipulation signal fires on 44% of trading days. Second, 57% of valid signals see full target delivery before the 9:40 AM New York entry window opens, revealing a structural mismatch between the model's timing assumptions and actual price delivery. Third, within this operationalization of the AMD model, no directional information beyond the daily trend regime was observed: when the signal aligns with the trend it is correct 62-71% of the time (Cohen's h = 0.23-0.43); when it opposes the trend it is correct only 25-30% of the time (Cohen's h = 0.42-0.53). All four trending-regime cells survive Benjamini-Hochberg correction. Key findings are robust to variation in the manipulation breach threshold (5-20 NQ points), Asia range filter percentile, and stop buffer. The regime-dependent signal pattern constitutes a specific, testable hypothesis for follow-on research.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.35887",
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Veer Taylor"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/aexanbpyjmnra.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.35887",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "aexanbpyjmnra",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.35887",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "q-fin.ST"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "q-fin.TR"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.AP"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.35887",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-01",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/aexanbpyjmnra.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:35:59Z",
      "native_id": "2610.35887",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.35887"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "arxiv:stat.AP",
      "subfield": "statistics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Evaluating the Predictive Validity of ICT's Accumulation-Manipulation-Distribution (AMD) Model on CME E-Mini NASDAQ-100 Futures",
  "title_text": "Evaluating the Predictive Validity of ICT's Accumulation-Manipulation-Distribution (AMD) Model on CME E-Mini NASDAQ-100 Futures",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:35:59Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/aexanbpyjmnra",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}