{
  "abstract": "Background/ObjectivesOlder adults are at high risk of influenza-related severe disease and complications. HD-IIV, currently recommended for adults [≥]65 years, is egg-based and may be subject to egg-adapted mutations. An mRNA-based vaccine for influenza, mRNA-1010, has been approved by the Food and Drug Administration. Given the clinical benefits observed in mRNA-1010 clinical trials and potential to avoid egg-adapted mutations, this analysis explores the clinical impact of mRNA-1010 compared to HD-IIV in those [≥]65 years in the United States.\n\nMethodsThis study used a decision-analytic model of influenza infection and downstream outcomes to project influenza burden with each vaccine over a one-year timeframe. Vaccine coverage, HD-IIV vaccine effectiveness (VE) and influenza epidemiology was estimated based upon Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. The relative VE (rVE) for mRNA-1010 vs. HD-IIV was modelled based on data from the clinical trial and published literature on the impact of egg adaptation.\n\nResultsThe base-case analysis suggests mRNA-1010 may prevent an additional 232,200 symptomatic influenza infections, 130,000 outpatient cases, 21,100 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 2,200 influenza-related deaths compared to HD-IIV. The number needed to vaccination to prevent one hospitalization was 514 or mRNA-1010 vs no vaccine and 404 for HD-IIV versus no vaccine, for an incremental NNV of 110. Scenario and deterministic sensitivity analyses results indicate that clinical outcomes prevented by mRNA-1010 are most sensitive to influenza incidence and VE.\n\nConclusionsmRNA-1010 may improve protection against influenza in US adults aged [≥]65 years, leading to meaningful reductions in the clinical influenza-related disease burden in older adults.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Moderna, Inc."
  ],
  "article_type": "PUBLISHAHEADOFPRINT",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 7,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "K. Fust"
    },
    {
      "name": "E. Beck"
    },
    {
      "name": "M. Kohli"
    },
    {
      "name": "S. Cartier"
    },
    {
      "name": "M. C. Weinstein"
    },
    {
      "name": "N. Van de Velde"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "K. Joshi"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/af5fdss6tjmwz.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.64898/2026.09.20.26363308",
  "fulltext_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.20.26363308v1.full",
  "id": "af5fdss6tjmwz",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.20.26363308v1",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "medrxiv",
      "health economics"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2713|Influenza Virus Research Studies"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7214341771",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.20.26363308v1.full.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-20",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/af5fdss6tjmwz.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:19:23Z",
      "native_id": "10.64898/2026.09.20.26363308",
      "source": "medrxiv",
      "url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.20.26363308v2"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "medrxiv:health economics",
      "subfield": "epidemiology-public-health"
    }
  ],
  "title": "The Potential Public Health Benefit of mRNA-1010 for Influenza Among Older Adults >=65 Years in the United States",
  "title_text": "The Potential Public Health Benefit of mRNA-1010 for Influenza Among Older Adults >=65 Years in the United States",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:20:20Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/af5fdss6tjmwz",
  "venue": "medRxiv",
  "versions": []
}