{
  "abstract": "Using quarterly FRED and CSO Ireland data over 1995Q1-2025Q4, we examine whether U.S.\\ IT investment and Irish data-centre electricity are recomposing the Kitchin cycle around energy- and compute-backed assets. Three findings stand out. First, a Quandt-Andrews sup-Wald test locates a significant break in the U.S.\\ IT-GDP correlation at 2014Q3 (sup-W $= 9.69$; $r$ falls from $+0.45$ to $-0.12$); the Fisher $r$-to-$z$ test survives Bonferroni adjustment ($z = +3.11$, $p_{\\text{Bonf}} = 0.006$), whereas the analogous test on the imposed Cloud-vs-AI boundary does not ($p_{\\text{Bonf}} = 0.164$), so ``Strategic Decoupling'' pre-dates the AI Era by approximately six years. Second, in Ireland the synchronous AI-Era correlation between metered data-centre electricity and Real GDP is large ($r = +0.41$, $N = 16$) but \\emph{collapses to $r \\approx 0$ when Real GDP is replaced by Real GNP}, suggesting the headline is largely an artefact of the shared multinational tax-structure footprint between hyperscaler operations and Irish gross output. Third, the Irish cross-correlation profile is asymmetric in the opposite direction to a leading-indicator reading: the largest positive coefficients cluster on the $k < 0$ side (GDP precedes data-centre load), so compute capacity is better read as coincident or moderately lagging. Given the small AI-Era samples and the absence of a quarterly multinational-adjusted aggregate such as GNI*, all coefficients are exploratory; subject to these caveats, the U.S.\\ Kitchin cycle is best dated to 2014Q3, and the Irish Energy-Data Nexus is dominated by multinational firm activity.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.33122",
  "author_total": 3,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Bartosz Ziollko"
    },
    {
      "name": "Adam Niedzialkowski"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bartosz Szyma"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/afq5f0s7151tz.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.33122",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "afq5f0s7151tz",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.33122",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "cs.AI"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "econ.GN"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "physics.soc-ph"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "q-fin.CP"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "q-fin.EC"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "q-fin.GN"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2105|Energy, Economy, and Technology Trends"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7223877110",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.33122",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-23",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/afq5f0s7151tz.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:35:35Z",
      "native_id": "2610.33122",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.33122"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "physics",
      "origin": "arxiv:physics.soc-ph",
      "subfield": "statistical-nonlinear"
    }
  ],
  "title": "The Digital-Energy Recomposition of the Kitchin Cycle: Exploratory Evidence from U.S. IT and Irish Data-Centre Series (1995-2025)",
  "title_text": "The Digital-Energy Recomposition of the Kitchin Cycle: Exploratory Evidence from U.S. IT and Irish Data-Centre Series (1995-2025)",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-06T18:21:01Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/afq5f0s7151tz",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}