{
  "abstract": "IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: USDCHF SHORT @ OFF_SESSION with 6 conf — improves win rate from 31.6% to 66.7% (+35.1pp, n=6)\n\nSAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current live window, this filter would have blocked the USDCHF LONG (rizzy7m) — a winner — and would have had no direct effect on any other listed trade since none are USDCHF SHORTs at OFF_SESSION. The claimed +35.1pp win-rate improvement is based on n=6, which is statistically fragile; the actual PnL delta here would be negative (removing a confirmed win) with no compensating new entries. Net expected change: −1 win, no loss avoided, so win-rate would drop from 6/9 to 5/8 in this sample — the opposite of the backtest claim.\n\nOVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, this filter would likely reduce trade frequency on USDCHF SHORTs during off-session hours, but the 66.7% win rate on n=6 is indistinguishable from noise (95% CI roughly 22–96%). The risk is overfitting to a tiny, possib\n\nAuthor: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Independent Researcher, United Kingdom"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Andrew Stewart Caldin"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/agdexa9f5n5rh.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.23465352",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "agdexa9f5n5rh",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23465352",
  "language": "eng",
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-19",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/agdexa9f5n5rh.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-02T12:21:44Z",
      "native_id": "23465352",
      "source": "zenodo",
      "url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23465352"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [],
  "title": "LAB #4387 HARMFUL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: USDCHF SHORT @ OFF_SESSION with 6 conf — improves win rate from 31.6% to — E8 Intelligence Research",
  "title_text": "LAB #4387 HARMFUL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: USDCHF SHORT @ OFF_SESSION with 6 conf — improves win rate from 31.6% to — E8 Intelligence Research",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-02T12:21:44Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/agdexa9f5n5rh",
  "venue": "Zenodo",
  "versions": []
}