{
  "abstract": "At a fixed threshold, relative utility (RU) measures the net-benefit gain of a prediction model over the better of treat-all and treat-none relative to the corresponding gain under perfect outcome classification. We illustrate that RU equal to 1 therefore represents perfect outcome classification at that fixed threshold, not perfect probabilistic prediction. However, even when every predicted probability equals the true probability, observed RU can equal 0. In a simple constant-risk setting, this occurs with probability approaching 1 as the sample size increases. Consequently, the distance from observed RU to 1 should not in general be interpreted as improvement achievable by a better prediction for binary probabilities.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2609.29133",
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Linard Hoessly"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/ajn6wfprac92a.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2609.29133",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "ajn6wfprac92a",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.29133",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.AP"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2613|Statistical Methods in Epidemiology"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7214327493",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.29133",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-24",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/ajn6wfprac92a.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:24:21Z",
      "native_id": "2609.29133",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.29133"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "arxiv:stat.AP",
      "subfield": "statistics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Interpreting relative utility for probabilistic predictions",
  "title_text": "Interpreting relative utility for probabilistic predictions",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:24:21Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/ajn6wfprac92a",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}