{
  "abstract": "Climate change presents a significant threat to wheat production in the tropical highlands of southeastern Oromia, Ethiopia. The DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model was calibrated using three years (2023–2025) of field observations at Kulumsa and independently validated using observations from Bore and Sinana. Future simulations used four CORDEX-Africa climate-model combinations under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 for the near-future (2037–2068) and far-future (2069–2100) periods. A randomized block design tested 24 combinations of sowing date, nitrogen rate, and cultivar. Simulations showed consistent yield declines under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 , with smaller reductions in the near future and sharper losses under SSP5-8.5 far future. Early planting consistently reduced yield losses by 15–25% relative to normal planting and 25–40% relative to late planting. Nitrogen application improved yields, though with diminishing returns; 69–92 kg N ha⁻¹ maintained near-baseline yields under SSP2-4.5 , while benefits above 69 kg N ha⁻¹ were limited under SSP5-8.5. Varietal differences showed that Shaki outperformed Boru, showing higher baseline yields and smaller climate-induced reductions. Economic analysis indicated that early planting with 69–92 kg N ha⁻¹ for Shaki maximized profitability , with gross margins exceeding 258,000 ETB ha⁻¹ under SSP2-4.5 near future. Risk-averse farmers may prefer 69 kg N ha⁻¹ due to the small marginal gain from 92 kg N. No single practice fully offset losses under SSP5-8.5 , highlighting the need for integrated strategies combining early planting, optimized nitrogen, and resilient cultivars. Location-specific optimization remains essential , and decision-support tools such as DSSAT can guide targeted adaptation. Overall, while climate change will reduce wheat yields, strategic management can substantially buffer impacts , though high-emission futures require urgent climate action and robust adaptation planning.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Haramaya University, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, School of Plant Sciences, P.O. Box 138, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia; Corresponding author.",
    "Director General (DG) Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, P.O. Box 2003, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia",
    "Haramaya University, College of Agriculture, School of Plant Sciences, P.O. Box 138, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia",
    "Department of Agronomy, Everglades Research and Education Center, IFAS, University of Florida, Belle Glade, FL, USA"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 4,
  "authors": [
    {
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        0
      ],
      "name": "Yared Tesfaye"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Nigussie Dechassa"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2
      ],
      "name": "Yibekal Alemayehu"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        3
      ],
      "name": "Dereje Ademe Birhan"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/aprhm65rfecbx.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1016/j.envc.2026.101701",
  "fulltext_url": "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667010026002957",
  "id": "aprhm65rfecbx",
  "issns": [
    "2667-0100"
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  "landing_url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2026.101701",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "lcc",
      "GE1-350"
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    [
      "openalex",
      "1105|Climate change impacts on agriculture"
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  "openalex": "W7223360266",
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-30",
  "publisher": "Elsevier",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/aprhm65rfecbx.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T13:47:19Z",
      "native_id": "40478f922b934bad947675edbc0167b3",
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      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2026.101701"
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  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "biology",
      "origin": "openalex:1105|Climate change impacts on agriculture",
      "subfield": "ecology"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Model-based assessment of climate change impacts on wheat yield under different crop management practices in the southeastern Oromia highlands, Ethiopia",
  "title_text": "Model-based assessment of climate change impacts on wheat yield under different crop management practices in the southeastern Oromia highlands, Ethiopia",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T13:47:19Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/aprhm65rfecbx",
  "venue": "Environmental Challenges",
  "versions": []
}