{
  "abstract": "Background: In Australia, non‐pharmaceutical interventions introduced early in 2020 to curtail the spread of COVID‐19 resulted in the temporary elimination of influenza. We used data from this influenza‐free period (2021) to validate influenza mortality burden predictions from time‐series models.\n\nMethods: Time‐series models were parameterised with routinely collected health data from 2010 to 2019 (pre‐pandemic) and from 2010 to 2019 plus 2021 (pandemic‐inclusive). These models were used to predict influenza A‐ and influenza B‐associated mortality rates in Queensland between 2010 and 2019. Mortality estimates were made in persons < 65 and ≥ 65 years for pneumonia and influenza (P&I) and respiratory illnesses as contributory mortality causes and for all‐cause mortality.\n\nResults: The models predicted consistent mortality rates for influenza B. However, the pandemic‐inclusive model for individuals ≥ 65 years predicted influenza A‐associated P&I mortality of 32.1 per 100,000 person‐years (95% prediction interval [PI]: 25.9, 39.6), significantly higher than the pre‐pandemic model estimate of 17.6 (95% PI: 13.4, 23.6). A similar, non‐significant difference occurred for respiratory mortality.\n\nConclusions: These results suggest that time‐series modelling may underestimate the true burden of influenza‐A mortality among the elderly. Further studies are needed to confirm this finding and establish the conditions under which the time‐series regression approach may be reliable.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Department of Infectious Diseases University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity Melbourne Australia",
    "WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza Royal Melbourne Hospital at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity Melbourne Australia",
    "Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health University of Melbourne Melbourne Australia",
    "School of Clinical Sciences Monash University Clayton Australia",
    "Monash Infectious Diseases Monash Health Clayton Australia"
  ],
  "article_type": "research article",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 5,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        1
      ],
      "name": "Jessie J. Goldsmith",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-4970-7843"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        2
      ],
      "name": "David J. Price",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-0076-3123"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        3,
        4
      ],
      "name": "Katherine B. Gibney",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-5851-5339"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Patricia Therese Campbell",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-4013-9835"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        3
      ],
      "name": "Sheena G. Sullivan",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-0856-0294"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/aqcypprr3gzq1.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1111/irv.70340",
  "fulltext_url": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13730788/?tool=EBI",
  "id": "aqcypprr3gzq1",
  "issns": [
    "1750-2640",
    "1750-2659"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC13730788",
  "language": "eng",
  "licence": "CC-BY-NC",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "heading",
      "Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses: Burden of Disease"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "ORIGINAL ARTICLE"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Original Article"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2713|Influenza Virus Research Studies"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7225155877",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13730788/pdf/?tool=EBI",
  "pmcid": "PMC13730788",
  "pmid": "42977265",
  "published": "2026-11-01",
  "publisher": "Wiley",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/aqcypprr3gzq1.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-04T15:20:46Z",
      "native_id": "PMC:PMC13730788",
      "source": "europepmc",
      "url": "https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC13730788"
    },
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-07T12:23:16Z",
      "native_id": "PMC13730788",
      "source": "pmc",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1111/irv.70340"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "openalex:2713|Influenza Virus Research Studies",
      "subfield": "epidemiology-public-health"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Validating Time‐Series Regression Model Predictions of Influenza Mortality: An Interrupted Time‐Series Analysis",
  "title_text": "Validating Time‐Series Regression Model Predictions of Influenza Mortality: An Interrupted Time‐Series Analysis",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-07T12:23:16Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/aqcypprr3gzq1",
  "venue": "Influenza and other respiratory viruses",
  "versions": []
}