{
  "abstract": "Understanding the durability of vaccine-induced immunity is critical for evaluating long-term protection and vaccine scheduling, particularly in aging populations where immunosenescence may alter immune response dynamics. In this study, we used a novel mathematical modelling pipeline to quantify age-related differences in the contraction and persistence phases of gE-specific CD4+ T cell and anti-gE antibody responses following Shingrix vaccination. Specifically, we developed a semi-mechanistic model to expand virtual populations that captured inter-individual variability in peak concentrations and waning dynamics. To compare immune responses across age groups, we introduced a time varying, age-related immune advantage metric that measures the probability of a randomly selected younger individual exhibiting a stronger immune response than one from an older group. By evaluating this metric across multiple simulated virtual populations, our results demonstrate clear and sustained age-related differences in both gE-specific CD4+ T cells and anti-gE antibody responses, with younger age groups consistently exhibiting higher responses. Given these age-related differences, we used our model to explore alternative vaccine schedules in older age groups. These exploratory simulations suggest that booster doses administered between 6 and 12 months following the second dose may mitigate age-related differences in antibody dynamics. This work highlights the use of mechanistic mathematical modelling to disentangle age-associated differences in vaccine outcomes and lead to designing of plausible improvement in age-specific vaccine schedules.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Universite de Montreal/Centre de recherche Azrieli du CHU Sainte-Justine"
  ],
  "article_type": "PUBLISHAHEADOFPRINT",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 7,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "T. Easlick"
    },
    {
      "name": "G. De La Rosa"
    },
    {
      "name": "S. Gantt"
    },
    {
      "name": "H. Qin"
    },
    {
      "name": "L. R. Shelton"
    },
    {
      "name": "D. Skibinski"
    },
    {
      "name": "M. Craig"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/ar4ntynt8ae2e.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.64898/2026.11.10.26367539",
  "fulltext_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.11.10.26367539v1.full",
  "id": "ar4ntynt8ae2e",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.11.10.26367539v1",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "medrxiv",
      "allergy and immunology"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.11.10.26367539v1.full.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-11-10",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/ar4ntynt8ae2e.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-13T00:21:07Z",
      "native_id": "10.64898/2026.11.10.26367539",
      "source": "medrxiv",
      "url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.11.10.26367539v1"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "medrxiv:allergy and immunology",
      "subfield": "general"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Quantifying age-associated differences in the durability of Shingrix-induced immunity using mathematical modelling",
  "title_text": "Quantifying age-associated differences in the durability of Shingrix-induced immunity using mathematical modelling",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-14T00:20:21Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/ar4ntynt8ae2e",
  "venue": "medRxiv",
  "versions": []
}