{
  "abstract": "Early detection of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) remains a critical challenge in COPD management. This study introduces the Bora Vital Sign Standard Score (BVS3), a novel unsupervised statistical score that predicts AECOPD using vital signs collected at home through remote patient monitoring, and retrospectively evaluates its predictive performance in identifying AECOPD ahead of clinician-defined episodes. The eMEUSE-SANTÉ clinical trial (NCT04963192) involved 220 COPD patients who were remotely monitored for six months using a CE-certified (Class IIa) connected wristband measuring oxygen saturation (SpO₂), breathing rate (BR) and heart rate (HR). A total of 42 physician validated exacerbations of COPD with no missing remote monitoring data were documented in 39 patients at a general hospital. Continuous 24-hour monitoring of vital signs using a connected wristband was well accepted over the long term, with a median adherence of 86% indicating strong patient compliance. The BVS3 risk score achieved excellent predictive performance, with an AUC of 0.88 (95% CI 0.83 - 0.92) for moderate and severe AECOPD combined. The BVS3 score anticipated exacerbations an average of 4.4 ± 3.1 days before clinical confirmation, with an overall accuracy of 84.8% and sensitivity of 74% with 85% specificity. Individual Z-scores for heart rate (z-HR), breathing rate (z-BR) and oxygen saturation (z-SpO2) showed specific predictive capabilities for moderate and severe events, yielding AUCs of 0.83, 0.82 and 0.71 respectively, but with inferior performances compared with the combination of the 3 vital signs Z-scores. These results demonstrate that integrating passive remote monitoring with unsupervised statistical modeling provides a scalable, high-compliance approach to AECOPD detection. The interpretable BVS3 risk score achieves good accuracy and anticipation for AECOPD prediction with minimal patient burden. By enabling earlier intervention, this end-to-end digital solution could significantly improve patient outcomes through proactive disease management.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 10,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Florian Tilquin"
    },
    {
      "name": "Sylvain Le Liepvre"
    },
    {
      "name": "Soumaya Balbolia"
    },
    {
      "name": "Marie Pirotais"
    },
    {
      "name": "Yann Le Guillou"
    },
    {
      "name": "Jean-Claude Cornu"
    },
    {
      "name": "Nicolas Roche"
    },
    {
      "name": "Gerard Criner"
    },
    {
      "name": "Marie Joyeux-Faure"
    },
    {
      "name": "Jean-Louis Pépin"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/atw6gddzc7frh.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1371/journal.pdig.0001405",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "atw6gddzc7frh",
  "issns": [
    "2767-3170"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://hal.science/hal-05743898v1",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "hal",
      "0.sdv"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2740|Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Research"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7162643695",
  "pdf_url": "https://journals.plos.org/digitalhealth/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pdig.0001405&type=printable",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-05-28",
  "publisher": "PLOS",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/atw6gddzc7frh.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:31Z",
      "native_id": "hal-05743898",
      "source": "hal",
      "url": "https://hal.science/hal-05743898v1"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "biology",
      "origin": "hal:0.sdv",
      "subfield": "general"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Short-term prediction of COPD exacerbations based on wearable vital sign monitoring",
  "title_text": "Short-term prediction of COPD exacerbations based on wearable vital sign monitoring",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:31Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/atw6gddzc7frh",
  "venue": "PLOS Digital Health",
  "versions": []
}