{
  "abstract": "Annual satellite products, such as the AlphaEarth Foundations and TESSERA embeddings, summarize a calendar year, so the product of a landslide's event year also contains post-event observations. We audited this post-event information in 18 dated events (7 earthquakes, 11 rainstorms; 61,402 landslides), changing only the input year within each event and keeping the points, spatial folds, models and bootstrap clusters fixed. Replacing the prior-year AlphaEarth product with the event-year product raised the out-of-fold AUC by 0.087 (95% CI 0.065–0.110; all 18 events) for a point model and by 0.071 (0.048–0.093) for a patch CNN. The point-model gain was 0.085 after subtracting each event's drift between two pre-event years. On complete maps, the event-year input added on average 0.21–0.22 of the landslide area to the map's top 10% (9 of 9 events; up to 0.46). A training-year × prediction-year decomposition traced the inflation to models that learn the event's surface changes, chiefly its landslide scars; event-year inputs used only at prediction did not inflate within-event scores on average. The inflation grew with the post-event fraction of the year, reaching half its full size when 23–39% of the year followed the event; this relation survived corrections for recovery. TESSERA and plain Sentinel-2 composites behaved alike. In forward tests in three regions, models trained on earlier landslides scored 0.02–0.11 higher AUC on the new event with event-year inputs, whereas legitimate pre-event embeddings helped mainly near earlier landslides. Susceptibility zoning should use only products whose year ends before the event.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 6,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Yifan Du"
    },
    {
      "name": "Tianhe Zheng"
    },
    {
      "name": "Peiyan Yang"
    },
    {
      "name": "Yibo Li"
    },
    {
      "name": "Junhang Zhou"
    },
    {
      "name": "Kun Yang"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/aty19cgcac4js.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.31223/x5rb93",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "aty19cgcac4js",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/15601/",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "bepress",
      "AlphaEarth Foundations"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Geomorphology"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "geospatial foundation models"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "landslide susceptibility"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "model evaluation"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "satellite embeddings"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "temporal leakage"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2308|Landslides and related hazards"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7223022539",
  "pdf_url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/object/15601/download/27225/",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-20",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/aty19cgcac4js.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:49Z",
      "native_id": "15601",
      "source": "eartharxiv",
      "url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/15601/"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "bepress:Geomorphology",
      "subfield": "geology-geochemistry"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Post-event information in calendar-year satellite products inflates landslide susceptibility assessments",
  "title_text": "Post-event information in calendar-year satellite products inflates landslide susceptibility assessments",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:49Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/aty19cgcac4js",
  "venue": "EarthArXiv",
  "versions": []
}