{
  "abstract": "In 2023, the North Atlantic Ocean experienced a marine heatwave of unprecedented intensity and duration, raising the question of whether substantially more severe outcomes were physically plausible under comparable present-day preconditioning, and which processes could produce them. Here, we apply ensemble boosting to a coupled Earth system model to generate physically consistent alternative evolutions of a 2023-like event. The boosted ensemble produced marine heatwaves lasting up to 579 days, reaching maximum intensities of 4.5 °C above climatology and cumulative intensities of 717 °C·days, compared with 240 days, 2.9 °C and 224 °C·days in observations. Detailed analyses of the longest and most intense events highlight contrasting roles for persistent Euro-Atlantic high pressure, reduced turbulent heat loss, enhanced shortwave radiation and upper-ocean heat redistribution. Finally, we place these present-day storylines in the context of future warming, showing that events comparable to the observed 2023 event become increasingly common as global warming progresses.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 4,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Catherine H. Gregory",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-8867-8144"
    },
    {
      "name": "Urs Hofmann Elizondo",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-4576-471X"
    },
    {
      "name": "Thibault Guinaldo",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-9792-8398"
    },
    {
      "name": "Thomas L. Frölicher",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-2348-7854"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/avt1nedshpj2e.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1038/s41467-026-78863-5",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "avt1nedshpj2e",
  "issns": [
    "2041-1723"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-78863-5",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "hal",
      "0.sdu"
    ],
    [
      "hal",
      "1.sdu.ocean"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2306|Climate variability and models"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7222977379",
  "pdf_url": "https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-05809590/document",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-19",
  "publisher": "Springer Science and Business Media LLC",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/avt1nedshpj2e.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:39Z",
      "native_id": "10.1038/s41467-026-78863-5",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-78863-5"
    },
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:59Z",
      "native_id": "meteo-05809590",
      "source": "hal",
      "url": "https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-05809590v1"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "hal:1.sdu.ocean",
      "subfield": "oceanography"
    }
  ],
  "title": "The 2023 North Atlantic marine heatwave could have evolved into a far more extreme event",
  "title_text": "The 2023 North Atlantic marine heatwave could have evolved into a far more extreme event",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:59Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/avt1nedshpj2e",
  "venue": "Nature Communications",
  "versions": []
}