{
  "abstract": "Reliable spacecraft power monitoring requires uncertainty estimates across forecast horizons and consistency between primitive electrical states and derived power. We present a task-aware conformal framework that selects joint residual geometry according to downstream power-envelope efficiency. A residual iTransformer produced point centres for five primitive electrical states at 1, 5, and 15 min. Candidate geometries were fitted, selected, and calibrated on chronologically separated complete-orbit blocks, and the final evaluation comprised 25,278 forecast origins from the chronologically subsequent July 2023 telemetry. Across three random-seed runs, the task-aware selector chose a joint box, whereas a residual-volume control selected the sample-covariance ellipsoid. Orbit-balanced primitive-state joint coverage was 0.892 (95% complete-orbit bootstrap confidence interval [CI], 0.883–0.899) at the 90% nominal level and 0.947 (95% CI, 0.943–0.952) at the 95% nominal level. At 90% and 95%, simultaneous coverage of both power channels across all horizons was 0.913 and 0.957. Relative to residual-volume selection, the task-aware method reduced normalized power interval score by 34.3% and 30.3%; the paired absolute reductions were 1.522 (95% CI, 1.505–1.540) and 1.552 (95% CI, 1.534–1.570). Power envelopes were computed from synchronized primitive current and bus-voltage sets. For the selected non-negative box, zero algebraic gap and full interval-image containment follow by construction; the empirical analyses quantify coverage and sharpness. The results demonstrate task-aware geometry selection for BUPT-1 multi-horizon power monitoring.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "School of Computer Science, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an, China",
    "Ningbo Institute, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Ningbo, China"
  ],
  "article_type": "Research Article",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 3,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Nan Lu"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Lehan Cui"
    },
    {
      "name": "Xinian Zhi"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/b35zne94728h0.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1371/journal.pone.0360910",
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  "id": "b35zne94728h0",
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    "1932-6203"
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  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "2207|Fault Detection and Control Systems"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Engineering and technology/Electronics engineering/Electronics/Comparators"
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      "plos",
      "/Engineering and technology/Energy and power/Alternative energy/Photovoltaic power"
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      "/Physical sciences/Astronomical sciences/Space exploration/Spaceflight/Spacecraft"
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      "/Research and analysis methods/Mathematical and statistical techniques/Statistical methods/Forecasting"
    ],
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      "plos",
      "/Research and analysis methods/Research assessment/Reproducibility"
    ]
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  "pdf_url": "https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0360910&type=printable",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-13",
  "publisher": "Public Library of Science",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/b35zne94728h0.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:30Z",
      "native_id": "10.1371/journal.pone.0360910",
      "source": "plos",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0360910"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "plos:algebra",
      "subfield": "algebra-number-theory"
    },
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "plos:geometry",
      "subfield": "geometry-topology"
    },
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "plos:statistical methods",
      "subfield": "statistics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Task-aware conformal power envelopes for multi-horizon spacecraft monitoring",
  "title_text": "Task-aware conformal power envelopes for multi-horizon spacecraft monitoring",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:30Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/b35zne94728h0",
  "venue": "PLOS One",
  "versions": []
}