{
  "abstract": "Hailstorms cause damage across the globe and endanger crops, but their changes in a warming climate are not well quantified. Here we apply three hail proxies to an ensemble of global model projections to show divergent changes in hail-prone condition frequency worldwide. Changes depend on whether the proxy allows instability increases to be offset by temperature or moisture increases. Uncertainty on hail projections remains high, especially in the tropics. In projections with 2 °C and 3 °C of mean global warming, ensemble-mean hail-prone conditions shifted polewards, with decreases in hail hazard in the mid-latitudes and increases in colder regions. Across 26 crop types with fixed exposure and vulnerability, hail risk was generally projected to increase for winter crops such as wheat and decrease for summer crops such as maize. Poleward shifts in hail hazard may attenuate yield increases from similar shifts in crop regions under climate change.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia",
    "ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia",
    "Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia",
    "Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia",
    "Agroscope, Climate and Agriculture, Zurich, Switzerland",
    "Planval, Bern, Switzerland",
    "Uncharted Waters, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 4,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        1,
        2,
        3
      ],
      "name": "Tim Raupach",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-3336-7610"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        4,
        5
      ],
      "name": "Raphael Portmann",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-2456-6258"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        6
      ],
      "name": "Christian Siderius",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-2201-9728"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        1,
        2
      ],
      "name": "Steven C. Sherwood",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-7420-8216"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/b7a08bb709tcc.bib",
  "cited_by": 5,
  "doi": "10.1038/s41558-026-02660-7",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "b7a08bb709tcc",
  "issns": [
    "1758-678X",
    "1758-6798"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02660-7",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "1102|Climate change impacts on agriculture"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7163414532",
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-06-01",
  "publisher": "Nature Portfolio",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/b7a08bb709tcc.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-08T13:20:45Z",
      "native_id": "W7163414532",
      "source": "openalex",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02660-7"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "biology",
      "origin": "openalex:1102|Climate change impacts on agriculture",
      "subfield": "plant-biology"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Shifting hail hazard under global warming and effects on crop hail risk",
  "title_text": "Shifting hail hazard under global warming and effects on crop hail risk",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-08T13:20:45Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/b7a08bb709tcc",
  "venue": "Nature Climate Change",
  "versions": []
}