{
  "abstract": "Intermittent online gambling records create two distinct representation problems: calendar-time analyses must retain represented days with no recorded play, whereas analyses of active behaviour must preserve variation within active episodes. We pair calendar-time and active-bout models in a two-resolution analysis of 14.2 million player-days from a single operator during 2019-2023. The calendar-time layer retains assignable represented days in five observed categories and propagates a pre-period reference. The active-episode layer fits a Bayesian mixed-emission hidden semi-Markov model to turnover, playing time, approved deposits and session counts. In the reference four-regime fit, two regimes share a rounded model-implied turnover median of 153.5 EUR, while their model-implied playing-time and approved-deposit medians differ by factors of 4.6 and 5.7, respectively, and their expected total session counts by a factor of 2.8. This separation remains under an ordinary hidden Markov model, two routing perturbations and a residual-dependence sensitivity; the tested turnover-only fits were diagnostically unstable. Over the temporary Swedish deposit-cap period, deposits and turnover per represented player-day were roughly 55% below the propagated reference and active-category occupancy was 7.8% lower. The largest negative deviations in a prespecified Sweden-assigned cohort occurred among high pre-policy deposit-intensity customers. These are operator-specific descriptive comparisons, not causal policy effects.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2609.07794",
  "author_total": 6,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Sam Andersson"
    },
    {
      "name": "Timo Koski"
    },
    {
      "name": "Helga Westerlind"
    },
    {
      "name": "Keenan Lyon"
    },
    {
      "name": "Per Carlbring"
    },
    {
      "name": "Olof Molander"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bd59kmn4f8jb0.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2609.07794",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "bd59kmn4f8jb0",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.07794",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.AP"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "3203|Gambling Behavior and Treatments"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7212072508",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.07794",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-07",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bd59kmn4f8jb0.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:20:07Z",
      "native_id": "2609.07794",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.07794"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "arxiv:stat.AP",
      "subfield": "statistics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Two-resolution state modelling of intermittent online gambling activity during Sweden's temporary deposit-cap period",
  "title_text": "Two-resolution state modelling of intermittent online gambling activity during Sweden's temporary deposit-cap period",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:20:07Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bd59kmn4f8jb0",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}