{
  "abstract": "IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 32.6% to 37.6% (+5.0pp, n=109)\n\nSAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the DISTRIBUTION-phase filter to the current 10-trade window would have blocked all trades opened on 2026-09-01 and 2026-09-02 (6 trades), since those dates fall in a likely DISTRIBUTION phase per your quarterly cycle. Of those blocked, 2 were wins (GBPUSD SHORT, NZDUSD SHORT) and 4 were losses/opens — netting a small positive effect (+2 wins removed, −4 losses removed, net PnL roughly +2R). The remaining 4 trades from late August (all rizzy5m/7m) would still stand, with 1 win and 3 losses, so the window win rate would rise from ~33% to ~25% (1/4) — actually worse in raw rate, but PnL improves because you cut the bigger losing cluster. Net expected delta: roughly +1.5R to +2.5R over this specific window, driven by avoiding the wkjudas cluster, not by the filter's general logic.\n\nOVER-TI\n\nAuthor: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Independent Researcher, United Kingdom"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Andrew Stewart Caldin"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bekv793s0x0fz.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.23446616",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "bekv793s0x0fz",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23446616",
  "language": "eng",
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-18",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bekv793s0x0fz.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-01T12:21:55Z",
      "native_id": "23446616",
      "source": "zenodo",
      "url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23446616"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [],
  "title": "LAB #4165 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 32.6% to 37.6% ( — E8 Intelligence Research",
  "title_text": "LAB #4165 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 32.6% to 37.6% ( — E8 Intelligence Research",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-01T12:21:55Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bekv793s0x0fz",
  "venue": "Zenodo",
  "versions": []
}