{
  "abstract": "IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 32.5% to 44.9% (+12.3pp, n=136)\n\nSAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the ACCUMULATION-phase filter to the 10 live trades above would have blocked most entries, since the window spans early September 2026 — likely a DISTRIBUTION or MARKUP phase for most majors given the cluster of losses. Specifically, the three rizzy5m trades on 2026-09-02 (GBPUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD) and the wkjudas trades on 2026-09-01 would likely have been filtered out — that removes 2 losses, 1 win, and 1 open, leaving only the older August trades. Net effect on this tiny sample: win rate would shift from ~2/7 closed (28.6%) to maybe 1/3 (33%) if only the August rizzy5m GBPUSD win and XAUUSD loss survived — PnL delta is negligible (±0.2R) due to tiny n, but variance drops sharply.\n\nOVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, the filter would cut trade frequency by roughly 40-60% (since ACCU\n\nAuthor: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Independent Researcher, United Kingdom"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Andrew Stewart Caldin"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bg3pzxen1b89w.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.23430967",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "bg3pzxen1b89w",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23430967",
  "language": "eng",
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-17",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bg3pzxen1b89w.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-31T12:22:08Z",
      "native_id": "23430967",
      "source": "zenodo",
      "url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23430967"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [],
  "title": "LAB #4146 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 32.5% to 44.9% ( — E8 Intelligence Research",
  "title_text": "LAB #4146 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 32.5% to 44.9% ( — E8 Intelligence Research",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-31T12:22:08Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bg3pzxen1b89w",
  "venue": "Zenodo",
  "versions": []
}