{
  "abstract": "The 2026 measles resurgence in Bangladesh motivates a spatial modelling framework that accounts for heterogeneous local transmission, vaccination activity, and interdivisional connectivity. We formulate a multipatch susceptible-vaccinated-infectious-recovered model for the eight administrative divisions of Bangladesh. Division-specific parameters are estimated from reported measles cases \\cite{DGHS} and smoothed vaccination data using bounded nonlinear least squares, with uncertainty quantified through 1000 parametric bootstrap replicates. The fitted divisional systems are then connected through compartment-specific movement and cross-patch infection coefficients adjusted for connectivity and the source division's relative reproduction number. The fitted model captures the main division-specific epidemic patterns. Estimated local reproduction numbers range from \\(1.1386\\) in Khulna (95\\% CI:\\(0.5703\\)--\\(1.3834\\)) to \\(4.3491\\) in Dhaka (95\\% CI: \\(1.4449\\)--\\(5.6307\\)), while Chattogram also exhibits high transmission potential (\\(\\mathcal{R}_0^i=4.2275\\); 95\\% CI: \\(4.0019\\)--\\(4.3185\\)). Baseline spatial coupling increases the network-wide epidemic peak from \\(190.96\\) to \\(313.20\\) infectious individuals and more than doubles cumulative infections from \\(1086.42\\) to \\(2345.35\\). Relative to baseline coupling, 50\\% and 80\\% restrictions reduce the epidemic peak by \\(26.69\\%\\) and \\(34.37\\%\\), and cumulative infections by \\(25.07\\%\\) and \\(41.48\\%\\), respectively. Conversely, a 50\\% increase in spatial coupling raises the peak by \\(30.14\\%\\) and cumulative infections by \\(23.54\\%\\). Although local transmission remains dominant in every division, cross-patch infection accounts for \\(28.83\\%\\) of new infections in Rajshahi at the baseline epidemic peak. Source-sink analysis identifies Dhaka as the dominant cross-patch source and Chattogram as a smaller secondary source.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.18911",
  "author_total": 2,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Faizunnesa Khondaker"
    },
    {
      "name": "Md. Kamrujjaman"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bkv6t3n7wk650.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.18911",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "bkv6t3n7wk650",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.18911",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-NC-ND-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC-ND 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "math.GM"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2739|Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7221889789",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.18911",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-12",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bkv6t3n7wk650.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:29:35Z",
      "native_id": "2610.18911",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.18911"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "openalex:2739|Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models",
      "subfield": "epidemiology-public-health"
    }
  ],
  "title": "A Multipatch Model for Evaluating Interdivisional Connectivity and Vaccination Dynamics in the 2026 Bangladesh Measles Outbreak",
  "title_text": "A Multipatch Model for Evaluating Interdivisional Connectivity and Vaccination Dynamics in the 2026 Bangladesh Measles Outbreak",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:29:35Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bkv6t3n7wk650",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}