{
  "abstract": "The mechanism driving accelerating unrest at the densely populated Campi Flegrei caldera since 2005 remains debated. Analyzing an unprecedented two-decade geochemical dataset, we show that escalating soil CO 2 fluxes closely tracks caldera uplift, revealing magmatic fluid pressurization at 3- to 4-kilometer depth and heating as the fundamental driver of the unrest. A critical magmatic gas pulse occurred between 2018 and 2022 specifically focused this outgassing beneath the Solfatara crater. Thermodynamic modeling demonstrates that an increasing mass of ascending fluid pressurizes the hydrothermal system, forcing vapor condensation within the upper kilometer. This condensation transfers latent heat to the crust. We calculate that this released thermal energy is an order of magnitude greater than that required for the 1.6-meter uplift since 2005. Ultimately, this fluid pressurization and heating drive accelerating deformation and seismicity; alongside the 2021 emergence of seismic sequences with short inter-event times, it directly signals an escalating phreatic or magmatic eruption risk.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Sezione di Napoli, Napoli, Italy.",
    "Dipartimento di Fisica e Geologia, Università di Perugia, Perugia, Italy.",
    "Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy.",
    "Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Roma 1, Roma, Italy.",
    "Department of Environmental, Biological and Pharmaceutical Sciences and Technologies, University of Campania “Luigi Vanvitelli”, Caserta, Italy."
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 18,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Giulio Bini",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-6240-7306"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Giovanni Chiodini",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-0628-8055"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Rosario Avino"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Alessandro Santi",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-1549-9786"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Francesco Rufino",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-7451-5280"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1,
        2
      ],
      "name": "Carlo Cardellini",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-4125-3058"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2
      ],
      "name": "Giancarlo Tamburello",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-7770-5226"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        3
      ],
      "name": "Tullio Ricci",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-0553-5384"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Prospero De Martino",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-9584-3347"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Antonio Carandente"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Emilio Cuoco",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-4637-1814"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Raffaella S. Iovine",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-6530-1566"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Carmine Minopoli",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-4036-1156"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2
      ],
      "name": "Dmitri Rouwet",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-3366-3882"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        3
      ],
      "name": "Alessandra Sciarra",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-3767-3105"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        4
      ],
      "name": "Renato Palmieri",
      "orcid": "0009-0001-2510-694X"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Mauro Tieri",
      "orcid": "0009-0009-5261-6601"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Stefano Caliro",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-8522-6695"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bmdwsqfvkccfj.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1126/sciadv.aei8075",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "bmdwsqfvkccfj",
  "issns": [
    "2375-2548"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aei8075",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-NC",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "1908|earthquake and tectonic studies"
    ]
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  "openalex": "W7220848739",
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-09",
  "publisher": "American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bmdwsqfvkccfj.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:41Z",
      "native_id": "10.1126/sciadv.aei8075",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aei8075"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "openalex:1908|earthquake and tectonic studies",
      "subfield": "geophysics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Escalating soil CO ₂ degassing correlates with ground uplift and seismicity during the ongoing unrest of Campi Flegrei (2005–2025)",
  "title_text": "Escalating soil CO ₂ degassing correlates with ground uplift and seismicity during the ongoing unrest of Campi Flegrei (2005–2025)",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:41Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bmdwsqfvkccfj",
  "venue": "Science Advances",
  "versions": []
}