{
  "abstract": "Background: Cardiovascular disease remains a leading cause of mortality among women and a major contributor to the burden of non-communicable diseases. Prevention and care pathways still insufficiently address sex- and gender-specific risk profiles. Evidence shows differences in risk factors, comorbidities, management and outcomes between women and men, supporting gender-sensitive policy modelling.\n\nMethods: We applied the ATHEROS algorithm, a Bayesian epidemiological model of atherosclerosis, to estimate the impact of public health policies among women in Portugal (2025-2034). The model simulates 12 interventions across prevention, diagnosis, treatment and linkage to care. Three scenarios were analyzed: current, maximal and minimal implementation. Outcomes included risk factor prevalence, healthcare use and economic burden.\n\nResults: Under current implementation, women’s risk profiles worsen by 2034 vs 2025, with hypertension (+1.8 pp), diabetes (+0.8 pp) and hypercholesterolemia (+2.7 pp), despite reduced smoking (-1.1 pp). Healthcare use increases (+1,611 hospitalizations; +10,964 emergency visits; +16,405 primary care consultations). Costs rise across all domains, including EUR63.0 million due to labor non-participation. Maximal implementation reduces smoking (-6.7 pp), sedentary behavior (-4.8 pp), diabetes (-2.7 pp), hypertension (-2.7 pp) and obesity (-2.2 pp), limiting additional hospitalizations to 841. Minimal implementation produces marked deterioration, with hypertension (+21.2 pp), hypercholesterolemia (+12.3 pp) and diabetes (+9.6 pp), alongside +2,610 hospitalizations and EUR472.6 million in non-participation costs.\n\nConclusions: Atherosclerosis in women is a preventable NCD burden. Policy inaction increases avoidable health and economic costs, while gender-sensitive modelling provides quantitative evidence to guide targeted prevention and more equitable cardiovascular outcomes.\n\nKey messages: • Policy inaction increases cardiovascular risk and costs among women.\n\n• Gender-sensitive modelling improves prevention and equity in cardiovascular health.",
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  "affiliations": [],
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  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 4,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "M P Castro"
    },
    {
      "name": "H J Lopes"
    },
    {
      "name": "J O Mendes"
    },
    {
      "name": "D I Franco"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bq165095yxpk9.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.1105",
  "fulltext_url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13698085/",
  "id": "bq165095yxpk9",
  "issns": [
    "1101-1262",
    "1464-360X"
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  "landing_url": "https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.1105",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY-NC-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC 4.0",
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  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
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      "heading",
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      "2739|Sex and Gender in Healthcare"
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  "pdf_url": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13698085/pdf/?tool=EBI",
  "pmcid": "PMC13698085",
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-01",
  "publisher": "Oxford University Press",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bq165095yxpk9.ris",
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    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:19:01Z",
      "native_id": "PMC13698085",
      "source": "pmc",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.1105"
    },
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:21:45Z",
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      "source": "europepmc",
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    }
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  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "openalex:2739|Sex and Gender in Healthcare",
      "subfield": "epidemiology-public-health"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Gender-sensitive modelling of atherosclerosis among women in Portugal, 2025-2034",
  "title_text": "Gender-sensitive modelling of atherosclerosis among women in Portugal, 2025-2034",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:35:00Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bq165095yxpk9",
  "venue": "The European Journal of Public Health",
  "versions": []
}