{
  "abstract": "Introduction: Predicting event-aligned canopy variation in mountains requires integrating vegetation state, phenology, irregular satellite observations, and landform context. We asked whether a task-structured predictor could improve spatial transfer of short-horizon EVI responses across unseen Qinling landscapes.\n\nMethods: We studied 80 response-blind matched sets in the Qinling Mountains, each comprising one mapped landform and two same-event non-landslide controls, yielding 991 set-events and 2,973 member responses across 32 spatial blocks. The landform-conditioned canopy response aggregator (LCRA) integrated dated MODIS EVI with climate-season, terrain, canopy-state summaries, and matched-member relations to predict subsequent-minus-pre-event (S-P) and subsequent-minus-impact (S-I) EVI. Models were evaluated with block-exclusive outer folds, and nominal composite-start-window results were compared with a complete 16-day support analysis.\n\nResults: In the nominal analysis, the compact LCRA core ensemble achieved member R ² = 0.8219 versus 0.7964 for the EVI-state-plus-season linear reference Δ R ² = +0.0254; 95%; block × shared-onset interval 0.0037−0.0532; matched-contrast R ² was comparable (0.3684 versus 0.3677). Requiring complete 16-day input support to end before the target window yielded member R ² = 0.7810 in 80 sets and 0.7988 in all 90 eligible sets; in the latter, Δ R ² versus linear was +0.0240 −0.0037 to 0.0547), while MAE decreased by 0.0041 EVI (0.0002–0.0087). Validation-based variance scaling reduced primary-task 95% interval width by 38.6% and brought empirical coverage from 99.4% to 92.9%, with improved probabilistic scores. Observed responses showed seasonal sign reversal: mean S-P was +0.0710 EVI in May–June and −0.1814 and −0.1849 in July–August and September. Pre-event canopy state provided a second ordered axis; calendar-standardized severity responses were negative but non-monotonic. The regional landform contrast centered near zero, with bidirectional conditional spatial variation.\n\nDiscussion: LCRA combines accurate spatial transfer with a phenology-centered account of event-aligned canopy trajectories. Complete temporal separation retained strong absolute accuracy, although relative R ² gains remained uncertain. These observational contrasts describe canopy variation rather than causal effects of hot–dry exposure.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "College of Biological and Environmental Engineering, Xi’an University",
    "Institute of Remote Sensing Satellite, China Academy of Space Technology"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 7,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Yuanyuan Shen"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Xuyue Shen"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Guozhen Liu"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Tao Zhou"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Chunyang Gu"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Yan Wang"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Donghui Zhang"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bwrzx4qypsz22.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.3389/fpls.2026.1955922",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "bwrzx4qypsz22",
  "issns": [
    "1664-462X"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2026.1955922/full",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "2303|Remote Sensing in Agriculture"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7224092319",
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-28",
  "publisher": "Frontiers Media SA",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bwrzx4qypsz22.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:19:25Z",
      "native_id": "10.3389/fpls.2026.1955922",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2026.1955922/full"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "biology",
      "origin": "openalex:2303|Remote Sensing in Agriculture",
      "subfield": "ecology"
    }
  ],
  "title": "LCRA predicts event-aligned canopy responses across unseen Qinling landscapes",
  "title_text": "LCRA predicts event-aligned canopy responses across unseen Qinling landscapes",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:19:25Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bwrzx4qypsz22",
  "venue": "Frontiers in Plant Science",
  "versions": []
}