{
  "abstract": "Climate change is accelerating ecosystem transitions worldwide, yet these changes often go undetected until visible damage occurs. Reliable early warning indicators are therefore needed. Here, we present a chemical indicator framework developed from a decade of permafrost thaw monitoring in subarctic Sweden. We show that declining soil chemical heterogeneity, measured as metabolomic mosaic diversity, preceded the documented collapse of palsa, a permafrost peat mound, at nearby sites by an estimated 2 to 7 years. This decline reflected a simpler metabolomic landscape, in which chemical variation followed fewer dominant biogeochemical gradients. Logistic regression of metabolomic fingerprints further revealed habitat specific chemical signatures. Deep soils kept a palsa signature after surface thaw, which shows that thaw proceeds in layers and in a nonlinear way. Finally, we identified metabolites with ecological functions. Catechin, a natural inhibitor of methane production, declined over time and may link ecosystem change to methane feedbacks. Together, these results show how untargeted metabolomics can be translated into measurable indicators of ecosystem change. Although developed for permafrost systems, this approach addresses a broader need to turn complex biochemical data into practical indicators, explain how ecosystems change, and identify sites that need closer monitoring before visible change occurs.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Department of Environmental Science, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA; BIO5 Institute, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA",
    "Department of Environmental Science, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA",
    "Integrated Discovery Sciences Directorate at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, USA",
    "Analytical & Biological Mass Spectrometry Facility, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA",
    "Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space and Department of Earth Sciences, University of New Hampshire, Durham, USA; Department of Geological Sciences and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden",
    "Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, USA",
    "Department of Environmental Science, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA; BIO5 Institute, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA; Corresponding author at: Department of Environmental Science, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA."
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 7,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Ben Yang"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Gretchen Hall"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2
      ],
      "name": "Viviana Freire-Zapata"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        3
      ],
      "name": "Lawrence R. Walker"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        4
      ],
      "name": "Ruth K. Varner"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        5
      ],
      "name": "Rachel M. Wilson"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        6
      ],
      "name": "Malak M. Tfaily"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bzsfzrbsp4sxq.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115709",
  "fulltext_url": "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X26011118",
  "id": "bzsfzrbsp4sxq",
  "issns": [
    "1470-160X",
    "1872-7034"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115709",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "lcc",
      "QH540-549.5"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "1902|Climate change and permafrost"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7223241177",
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-30",
  "publisher": "Elsevier",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bzsfzrbsp4sxq.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T13:44:37Z",
      "native_id": "deeda473c0464d1b91aac964ffcebd12",
      "source": "doaj",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115709"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "openalex:1902|Climate change and permafrost",
      "subfield": "climate"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Metabolomic indicators anticipate permafrost peatland ecosystem transition before visible change",
  "title_text": "Metabolomic indicators anticipate permafrost peatland ecosystem transition before visible change",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T13:44:37Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/bzsfzrbsp4sxq",
  "venue": "Ecological Indicators",
  "versions": []
}