{
  "abstract": "The modulation of galactic cosmic rays, driven by the evolution of the heliospheric magnetic field, strongly influences the intensity of cosmic rays reaching near-Earth space. Characterizing this process is crucial both for advancing our understanding of cosmic-ray transport and for assessing radiation exposure and related hazards in space environments. Here we present a newly developed forecasting framework built on a numerical description of charged particle transport in the heliosphere and its dependence on solar activity, designed for the long-term forecasting of galactic cosmic-ray fluxes. It solves a one-dimensional, spherically symmetric form of the Parker transport equation, including diffusion, solar-wind advection, and adiabatic energy losses. The model has been validated using multi-species flux measurements from space-based experiments: PAMELA, AMS-02, and ACE. Its strategy is based on Hilbert-Huang transform filtering and cross-correlation between delayed solar proxies and effective model parameters. Our charge-sign- and rigidity-dependent parametric description of the diffusion-advection processes yields good overall agreement with the data, as shown by the reconstruction uncertainty. The robustness of this approach is validated across a broad set of multichannel datasets covering different particle species, energy ranges, and phases of solar activity, supporting its applicability to space radiation monitoring and forecasting. Furthermore, when coupled with solar-proxy forecasting models, it enables decadal-scale predictions of galactic cosmic-ray fluxes, thereby supporting long-term planning and radiation-risk assessment for future space missions.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2606.31433",
  "author_total": 6,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "David Pelosi"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fernando Barão"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bruna Bertucci"
    },
    {
      "name": "Emanuele Fiandrini"
    },
    {
      "name": "Miguel Orcinha"
    },
    {
      "name": "Nicola Tomassetti"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/c0n6n1ec7emm1.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2606.31433",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "c0n6n1ec7emm1",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.31433",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.HE"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.SR"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "physics.space-ph"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2606.31433",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-06-30",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/c0n6n1ec7emm1.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:19:14Z",
      "native_id": "2606.31433",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.31433"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.HE",
      "subfield": "high-energy-astrophysics"
    },
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.SR",
      "subfield": "stellar"
    }
  ],
  "title": "A new model for long-term forecasting of Galactic cosmic rays",
  "title_text": "A new model for long-term forecasting of Galactic cosmic rays",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:19:14Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/c0n6n1ec7emm1",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": [
    {
      "doi": "10.1103/npfk-lwy9",
      "pid": null,
      "relation": "published-as",
      "title": null,
      "venue": null
    }
  ]
}