{
  "abstract": "In Arctic winter, the boundary layer occupies two preferred radiative states, a cold, clear state and a heat-trapping, cloudy state, that strongly regulate surface energy loss over sea ice. Yet, reanalyses and climate models are often biased toward a single intermediate state. Using a stochastic differential equation framework applied to 27 years of high-resolution observations, we show that the observed bistability is not sustained by multiple deterministic equilibria: The mean restoring tendency is effectively single-well, while background meteorology alone cannot explain rapid transitions. Instead, the two regimes are sustained by sharply localized, state-dependent noise in the transition range. This noise structure emerges when subhourly fluctuations in liquid water path are radiatively amplified by the nonlinear saturation of longwave emissivity. Our results provide a dynamical explanation for this model bias and identify unresolved fast cloud variability as a key source of uncertainty in Arctic winter climate projections.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA.",
    "Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA."
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 2,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        1
      ],
      "name": "Jung-Sub Lim",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-2861-0009"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Graham Feingold",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-0774-2926"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/cd3zynn8dm5wf.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1126/sciadv.aeh3823",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "cd3zynn8dm5wf",
  "issns": [
    "2375-2548"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aeh3823",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "2306|Climate variability and models"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7214952363",
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-02",
  "publisher": "American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/cd3zynn8dm5wf.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:41Z",
      "native_id": "10.1126/sciadv.aeh3823",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aeh3823"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "openalex:2306|Climate variability and models",
      "subfield": "climate"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Stochastic cloud fluctuations drive Arctic winter radiative bistability",
  "title_text": "Stochastic cloud fluctuations drive Arctic winter radiative bistability",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:41Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/cd3zynn8dm5wf",
  "venue": "Science Advances",
  "versions": []
}