{
  "abstract": "Circular data recorded over time, such as wind direction, are increasingly observed in intervals rather than as single point-valued observations, yet no existing framework accommodates data that are simultaneously circular, interval-valued, and temporally dependent. Time series models for point-valued circular data, including recently proposed score-driven approaches, assume that each observation is a single angle. This paper addresses this gap by proposing a dynamic conditional score framework for interval-valued circular time series. The lower and upper boundary sequences of the observed intervals are treated as circular time series governed by score-driven dynamics, which preserves the periodicity of the circular domain and the dependency of boundaries, in which the boundaries are coupled through a toroidal distribution and a jointly derived score. Maximum likelihood estimation is discussed, and their finite-sample performance is evaluated through simulation. An application to interval-valued wind direction data illustrates the practical value of retaining the interval structure within a fully rotationally invariant circular framework.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.13642",
  "author_total": 4,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Thasmika Mohan"
    },
    {
      "name": "Najmeh Nakhaei Rad"
    },
    {
      "name": "Sphiwe Skhosana"
    },
    {
      "name": "Yaser Samadi"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/cn0w9tp79518k.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.13642",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "cn0w9tp79518k",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.13642",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.CO"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.ME"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2613|Statistical Distribution Estimation and Applications"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7221524574",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.13642",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-09",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/cn0w9tp79518k.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:28:46Z",
      "native_id": "2610.13642",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.13642"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "arxiv:stat.CO",
      "subfield": "statistics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Interval-valued circular time series: A toroidal score-driven approach with an application to wind direction",
  "title_text": "Interval-valued circular time series: A toroidal score-driven approach with an application to wind direction",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:28:46Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/cn0w9tp79518k",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}