{
  "abstract": "Spatially resolved stress proxies and rate-based seismicity models are increasingly combined for regional earthquake forecasting, yet formally testing their non-redundancy remains largely unaddressed. We present the Nested-Permutation Alarm for Dual-Parameter Earthquake Forecasting (ANADEF) pipeline, integrating a stress-sensitive Gutenberg--Richter $b$-value field, estimated via a penalized 2D B-spline inversion, with a stationary background rate ($μ$) from space--time ETAS stochastic declustering. Applied to the Zagros Fold--Thrust Belt using an 18-year catalog ($n=40{,}731$, $M_{\\mathrm{N}}\\geq1.5$, 2006--2024) under a two-stage protocol with non-overlapping training (2006--2014) and target (2015--2024) windows, the model achieves, for $M_w\\geq5.0$ ($N=55$), a retrospective Area Skill Score $S=0.69$ (95\\% CI: 0.64--0.73), reducing alarmed area from $τ\\approx0.38$ ($μ$-only) to $τ\\approx0.28$ while retaining hit rate $ν=92.7\\%$; since thresholds are calibrated on the evaluation catalog, these are in-sample, not out-of-sample, estimates. A nested permutation procedure re-optimizing thresholds within each null realization tests whether $b$-value adds information beyond $μ$, absorbing the optimization bias. Significance is null-model dependent: cell-wise randomization yields $p=0.012$, while a conservative spatial-structure-preserving null gives weaker, non-significant evidence ($p=0.057$)---incremental stress information is suggestive but not unambiguously established. Calibrated thresholds were frozen and applied to updated 2015--2024 fields, generating an unvalidated, forward-looking spatial alarm template for 2025--2029. These results establish a reproducible, statistically transparent methodology for testing, rather than assuming, complementarity between stress-sensitive and rate-based predictors, offering a candidate operational template pending prospective validation.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2609.06920",
  "author_total": 3,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Hamzeh Mohammadigheymasi"
    },
    {
      "name": "Muhammed Hossein Mousavi"
    },
    {
      "name": "Nuno Pombo"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/cnh27n2tr0ve3.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2609.06920",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "cnh27n2tr0ve3",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.06920",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "physics.geo-ph"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "1908|earthquake and tectonic studies"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7212081734",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.06920",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-07",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/cnh27n2tr0ve3.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:19:48Z",
      "native_id": "2609.06920",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.06920"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "arxiv:physics.geo-ph",
      "subfield": "geophysics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "ANADEF: A Nested-Permutation Alarm for Dual-Parameter Earthquake Forecasting",
  "title_text": "ANADEF: A Nested-Permutation Alarm for Dual-Parameter Earthquake Forecasting",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:19:48Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/cnh27n2tr0ve3",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}