{
  "abstract": "IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 32.2% to 33.1% (+0.9pp, n=1498)\n\nSAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MANIPULATION-phase filter to the live window above would have blocked the three REJECTED/open trades (USDCHF LONG 0.81152, EURJPY SHORT, AUDUSD LONG 0.71755) — all of which are currently unresolved and likely entered during that phase. Among the seven closed trades, none show a clear phase label, so the filter would not have altered any of the four wins or three losses. Net effect on this small sample: no change to realized PnL, but it would have removed three open positions that carry unknown forward risk, potentially reducing drawdown if those trades fail. Expected win-rate delta here is ~0% on closed trades, but variance reduction is plausible.\n\nOVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a +0.9pp win-rate improvement (32.2%→33.1%) on ~1,500 backtested trades is marginal and within n\n\nAuthor: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Independent Researcher, United Kingdom"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Andrew Stewart Caldin"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/cnm6hwxe545rx.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.23587280",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "cnm6hwxe545rx",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23587280",
  "language": "eng",
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-23",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/cnm6hwxe545rx.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-06T12:21:47Z",
      "native_id": "23587280",
      "source": "zenodo",
      "url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23587280"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [],
  "title": "LAB #4611 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 32.2% to 33.1% ( — E8 Intelligence Research",
  "title_text": "LAB #4611 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 32.2% to 33.1% ( — E8 Intelligence Research",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-06T12:21:47Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/cnm6hwxe545rx",
  "venue": "Zenodo",
  "versions": []
}