{
  "abstract": "IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.5% to 32.3% (+0.8pp, n=1535)\n\nSAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MANIPULATION-phase filter to the live window would have excluded the three wkjudas trades (GBPUSD LONG, USDJPY SHORT, NZDUSD SHORT) — all closed as LOSSES — and likely the two rizzy7m AUDUSD trades (one LOSS, one open/REJECTED). That removes 3 confirmed losers and 1 probable loser from 10 trades, leaving 5 wins and 1 loss among the remaining rizzy5m/7m signals. Expected win rate jumps from ~50% (5/10) to ~83% (5/6) in this window, with a clear positive PnL delta of roughly +3R (assuming ~1R per win and −1R per excluded loss). However, the filter also excludes the two REJECTED/open trades, so the live effect is partially confounded by execution status.\n\nOVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, the +0.8pp win-rate gain (31.5%→32.3%) is statistically marginal (n=1535, p≈0.15) and likely\n\nAuthor: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Independent Researcher, United Kingdom"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Andrew Stewart Caldin"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/cvt9b7zb5ry2t.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.23490938",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "cvt9b7zb5ry2t",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23490938",
  "language": "eng",
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-20",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/cvt9b7zb5ry2t.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-03T12:21:23Z",
      "native_id": "23490938",
      "source": "zenodo",
      "url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23490938"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [],
  "title": "LAB #4440 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.5% to 32.3% ( — E8 Intelligence Research",
  "title_text": "LAB #4440 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.5% to 32.3% ( — E8 Intelligence Research",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-03T12:21:23Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/cvt9b7zb5ry2t",
  "venue": "Zenodo",
  "versions": []
}