{
  "abstract": "Interactions between waves and the mean-state in the tropics are of fundamental importance for reliable future projection of tropical waves and their impacts under anthropogenic climate change. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant source of weather variability over many parts of the globe on intraseasonal timescales. In this study, we investigate the influence of mean-state changes on the MJO in three aqua-planet experiments made with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) by prescribing sea surface temperature profiles to capture three different climate states: a current climate-like state, a colder (-4K) state, and a warmer (+4K) state. We find that the MJO strengthens with surface warming, showing higher spectral power over the MJO band (20-100 day period, zonal wavenumbers 1-3) in both circulation and convection fields. Furthermore, MJO-associated precipitation variability increases more strongly than mean-state precipitation with warming, while the east-west ratio increases by a factor of 3x from -4K to +4K. Using a moisture budget approach, two key mechanisms were found to result in MJO strengthening; first, a reduction in the Gross Moist Stability associated with increases in the mean low-level vertical moisture gradient, and second, a reduced damping associated with meridional moisture advection resulting from an increase in the mean low-level meridional moisture gradient. The reduction in GMS is slightly offset, however, by a reduction in the cloud-radiative feedback parameter with warming. This occurs because the cloud top temperature is nearly invariant with warming despite a sharp increase in precipitation.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 3,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Spencer Ressel"
    },
    {
      "name": "Daehyun Kim"
    },
    {
      "name": "Peter Blossey"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d044p9dv8hwgs.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.31223/x5zr5k",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "d044p9dv8hwgs",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/15145/",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "bepress",
      "Atmospheric Sciences"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Climate"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Madden-Julian Oscillation"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Physical Sciences and Mathematics"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Tropical Dynamics"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2306|Climate variability and models"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7214126789",
  "pdf_url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/object/15145/download/26270/",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-23",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d044p9dv8hwgs.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:36Z",
      "native_id": "15145",
      "source": "eartharxiv",
      "url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/15145/"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "bepress:Atmospheric Sciences",
      "subfield": "atmospheric"
    },
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "bepress:Climate",
      "subfield": "climate"
    },
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "bepress:Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology",
      "subfield": "oceanography"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Changes to the Madden-Julian Oscillation with Surface Temperature Warming in Aquaplanet Simulations",
  "title_text": "Changes to the Madden-Julian Oscillation with Surface Temperature Warming in Aquaplanet Simulations",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:36Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d044p9dv8hwgs",
  "venue": "EarthArXiv",
  "versions": []
}