{
  "abstract": "Ecological forecasts are increasingly required to inform science, policy and action in the face of rapid environmental and societal change. However, differences in how developers and end-users judge the value of ecological forecasts may limit their utility and uptake in real-world decision-making. Here, we use a participatory approach to propose a novel, holistic framework for the evaluation of ecological forecasts along two intersecting axes: quality and success. Quality is defined by the defensible development and predictive performance of ecological forecasts, while success captures the usefulness of a forecast in achieving its intended aim. We propose twelve shared criteria for evaluating quality and success spanning the forecasting process, set-up, and outputs while capturing forecast development, communication, performance, and operationality. Together, these criteria provide a common basis for the co-development of ecological forecasts, and better connect science with forecast-informed decision-making.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 13,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Victoria L Boult"
    },
    {
      "name": "Sandro Bertolino"
    },
    {
      "name": "Adam Devenish"
    },
    {
      "name": "Luke C Evans"
    },
    {
      "name": "Cara A. Gallagher"
    },
    {
      "name": "Valentin Journe"
    },
    {
      "name": "Gerbrand Koren"
    },
    {
      "name": "Joe Frederick Langley"
    },
    {
      "name": "Solène Marion"
    },
    {
      "name": "Maria Paniw"
    },
    {
      "name": "James Pearce-Higgins"
    },
    {
      "name": "Nigel Yoccoz"
    },
    {
      "name": "Emily Simmonds"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d0bp7jjpf6k7k.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.32942/x24m6b",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "d0bp7jjpf6k7k",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/view/15818/",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "bepress",
      "Decision support"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Ecological modelling"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Ecology and Evolutionary Biology"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Evaluation"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Forecasting"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Life Sciences"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Participatory approach"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Predictive ecology"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "1803|Forecasting Techniques and Applications"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7224100830",
  "pdf_url": "https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/object/15818/download/27397/",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-28",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d0bp7jjpf6k7k.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:41Z",
      "native_id": "15818",
      "source": "ecoevorxiv",
      "url": "https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/view/15818/"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "biology",
      "origin": "bepress:Ecology and Evolutionary Biology",
      "subfield": "ecology"
    },
    {
      "field": "biology",
      "origin": "bepress:Ecology and Evolutionary Biology",
      "subfield": "evolutionary-biology"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Rethinking success and quality in ecological forecasting",
  "title_text": "Rethinking success and quality in ecological forecasting",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:41Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d0bp7jjpf6k7k",
  "venue": "EcoEvoRxiv",
  "versions": []
}