{
  "abstract": "Past climate change has repeatedly reshaped Earth’s biomes, yet how their expansion and contraction influence biodiversity patterns through time remains unclear. Competing hypotheses propose that either historical biome area has a strong influence on diversity, or that biodiversity responds rapidly to environmental change, such that present-day biome area and energy are sufficient to explain diversity patterns. Progress in testing these ideas has been limited by sparse and inconsistent proxy data and the coarse resolution of existing paleoclimate models. Here, we reconstructed global biome histories for the Cenozoic (66–0 Ma) by downscaling five different paleoclimate simulations. Estimates of change in biome area through time were generally consistent among alternative climate models and with the empirical proxy record. Accounting for variation among models, we found that present-day area and energy were consistently better predictors of vertebrate diversity than historical measures. These findings suggest biodiversity tracks the ecological limits set by shifting biomes, leaving sparse legacy of past dynamics. Our results highlight the importance of integrating multiple paleoclimate reconstructions when assessing the historical drivers of biodiversity.\n\nHow past biome dynamics shape present-day biodiversity is unclear. This study uses reconstructed paleobiomes over the past 66 million years to show that current biome properties predict diversity better than historical biomes, suggesting that biodiversity rapidly tracks changing ecological limits.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia",
    "School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom",
    "Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom",
    "Dynamic Macroecology, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland"
  ],
  "article_type": "Research Article",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 6,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Alexander Skeels",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-9973-4703"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Julian Rogger"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Marcel Cardillo"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1,
        2
      ],
      "name": "Alexander Farnsworth"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1,
        2
      ],
      "name": "Daniel J. Lunt"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        3
      ],
      "name": "Dirk Nikolaus Karger"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d24be7aex5hdg.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1371/journal.pbio.3004077",
  "fulltext_url": "https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3004077",
  "id": "d24be7aex5hdg",
  "issns": [
    "1545-7885",
    "1544-9173"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3004077",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "heading",
      "Animals"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Atmospheric Science"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Biodiversity"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Biology and Life Sciences"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Cenozoic Era"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Climate Modeling"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Climatology"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Earth Sciences"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Ecological Metrics"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Ecology"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Ecology and Environmental Sciences"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Ecosystems"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Eukaryota"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Geologic Time"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Geology"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Organisms"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Paleobiology"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Paleoclimatology"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Paleontology"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Research Article"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Research and Analysis Methods"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Simulation and Modeling"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Species Diversity"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Vertebrates"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Zoology"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "1911|Evolution and Paleontology Studies"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Biology and life sciences/Ecology/Biodiversity"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Biology and life sciences/Ecology/Ecological metrics/Species diversity"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Biology and life sciences/Ecology/Ecosystems"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Biology and life sciences/Organisms/Eukaryota/Animals/Vertebrates"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Biology and life sciences/Paleontology/Paleobiology"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Biology and life sciences/Paleontology/Paleoclimatology"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Biology and life sciences/Zoology/Animals/Vertebrates"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Earth sciences/Atmospheric science/Climatology/Climate modeling"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Earth sciences/Atmospheric science/Climatology/Paleoclimatology"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Earth sciences/Geology/Geologic time/Cenozoic era"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Earth sciences/Paleontology/Paleobiology"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Earth sciences/Paleontology/Paleoclimatology"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Ecology and environmental sciences/Ecology/Biodiversity"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Ecology and environmental sciences/Ecology/Ecological metrics/Species diversity"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Ecology and environmental sciences/Ecology/Ecosystems"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Research and analysis methods/Simulation and modeling/Climate modeling"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7223339774",
  "pdf_url": "https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3004077&type=printable",
  "pmcid": "PMC13719045",
  "pmid": "42912833",
  "published": "2026-10-23",
  "publisher": "Public Library of Science",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d24be7aex5hdg.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:23Z",
      "native_id": "10.1371/journal.pbio.3004077",
      "source": "plos",
      "url": "https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3004077"
    },
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-02T12:22:57Z",
      "native_id": "PMC13719045",
      "source": "pmc",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3004077"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "biology",
      "origin": "plos:ecology",
      "subfield": "ecology"
    },
    {
      "field": "biology",
      "origin": "plos:paleobiology",
      "subfield": "evolutionary-biology"
    },
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "heading:Atmospheric Science",
      "subfield": "atmospheric"
    },
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "heading:Climatology",
      "subfield": "climate"
    },
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "heading:Geology",
      "subfield": "geology-geochemistry"
    }
  ],
  "title": "High-resolution paleobiome reconstructions highlight ecological and historical dynamics underpinning global terrestrial vertebrate diversity",
  "title_text": "High-resolution paleobiome reconstructions highlight ecological and historical dynamics underpinning global terrestrial vertebrate diversity",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-02T12:22:57Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d24be7aex5hdg",
  "venue": "PLOS Biology",
  "versions": []
}