{
  "abstract": "Early warnings save lives only when they move people to act. Yet during recent urban flood disasters in Japan, evacuation compliance remained extremely low, revealing a substantial intention–action gap at the heart of climate risk management. This study addresses that gap by proposing an Evacuation Threshold Framework (ETF), which extends the Protective Action Decision Model by conceptualizing the conversion from intention to action as a non-linear, threshold-gated process. The framework is tested using a factorial survey experiment conducted in Hiroshima, Japan ( n = 1324), in which each respondent evaluated identical flood scenarios under both Standard Valuation and Inferred Valuation framings. The latter is used as the primary inferential basis because it yields more conservative estimates of evacuation propensity and helps attenuate self-presentation bias. The results yield three main findings. First, the behavioral activation threshold is calibrated at approximately 0.7 on a 0–1 scale, well above the conventional 0.5 cutoff, indicating substantial psychological inertia before intention translates into action. Second, evacuation intention is driven less by logistical frictions than by social and environmental cues: visible peer evacuation exerts a strong contagion effect, while improved shelter privacy substantially raises predicted evacuation rates. Third, even under extremely high perceived risk, predicted evacuation rates remain near zero when pull and contagion cues are absent, indicating that information alone is insufficient to close the intention–action gap. These findings suggest that effective climate risk management must move beyond information transmission toward the behavioral design of protective environments — lowering psychological thresholds and amplifying visible action. Although grounded in urban flood risk in Japan, the proposed framework offers a generalizable behavioral perspective for climate risk management across hazards and settings.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Faculty of Economics, Shiga University, Japan; National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Japan; The Center for Public Service, Portland State University, USA; Corresponding author at: Faculty of Economics, Shiga University, 1-1-1 Bamba, Hikone, Shiga 522-8522, Japan.",
    "Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan",
    "Disaster Prevention Research Center, Aichi Institute of Technology, Japan",
    "Crisis and Environment Management Policy Institute, Japan"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 4,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Katsuya Tanaka"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Kazuhide Akaishi"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2
      ],
      "name": "Takashi Yokota"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        3
      ],
      "name": "Fujio Kusano"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d2ss7wkfcemsv.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1016/j.crm.2026.100901",
  "fulltext_url": "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096326001142",
  "id": "d2ss7wkfcemsv",
  "issns": [
    "2212-0963"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2026.100901",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "lcc",
      "QC851-999"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2306|Flood Risk Assessment and Management"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7221515598",
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-30",
  "publisher": "Elsevier",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d2ss7wkfcemsv.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T13:44:57Z",
      "native_id": "9413d9db90cd4238b2700b3ad238d598",
      "source": "doaj",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2026.100901"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "openalex:2306|Flood Risk Assessment and Management",
      "subfield": "climate"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Crossing the behavioral threshold: social amplification and climate risk management in urban flood evacuation",
  "title_text": "Crossing the behavioral threshold: social amplification and climate risk management in urban flood evacuation",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T13:44:57Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d2ss7wkfcemsv",
  "venue": "Climate Risk Management",
  "versions": []
}