{
  "abstract": "Permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is undergoing rapid degradation, yet most existing distribution maps reflect long-term historical averages rather than the current thermal state of the ground. This temporal mismatch limits their usefulness for ecological, hydrological, and engineering applications. Here, we present a 1 km resolution permafrost distribution map for the 2020 period using an extended ground surface frost number model (FROSTNUM) driven by satellite-derived freezing/thawing indices. Because no concurrent field survey was available, we applied a space-for-time substitution strategy with Random Forest regression to estimate the empirical soil parameter ( E ) from environmental covariates. The resulting map shows that permafrost covered approximately 1.038 × 10 ⁶ km ² (39.35 % of the QTP), while seasonally frozen ground (SFG) covered 1.466 × 10 ⁶ km ² (55.57 %). Compared with the 2010 baseline, the permafrost area declined by 4.8 × 10 ⁴ km ² (a 1.82 % decrease). Degradation was spatially heterogeneous: the transition from permafrost to SFG was dominant in the central QTP, whereas the southern margin experienced substantial conversion of SFG to non-frozen ground. Validations against 109 independent borehole records yielded an overall accuracy of 0.84 and a Kappa of 0.58, outperforming existing 2020-period maps. This map provides a temporally specific reference for engineering risk assessment, ecological monitoring and the calibration of land surface models in this rapidly changing region.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Shanghai Normal University (Shanghai, China)",
    "Nanjing Normal University (Nanjing, China)"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 8,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Yuhong Chen",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-8118-108X"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        1
      ],
      "name": "Zhuotong Nan",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-7930-3850"
    },
    {
      "name": "Wenbiao Tian"
    },
    {
      "name": "Yi Zhao"
    },
    {
      "name": "Shuping Zhao",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-7632-4085"
    },
    {
      "name": "Dongkai Yang"
    },
    {
      "name": "Guifei Jing"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fujun Niu"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d3j3g3dgdpvge.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.5194/tc-20-5697-2026",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "d3j3g3dgdpvge",
  "issns": [
    "1994-0424"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/20/5697/2026/",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "1902|Climate change and permafrost"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7220694822",
  "pdf_url": "https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/20/5697/2026/tc-20-5697-2026.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-06",
  "publisher": "Copernicus GmbH",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d3j3g3dgdpvge.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:20:37Z",
      "native_id": "10.5194/tc-20-5697-2026",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/20/5697/2026/"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "openalex:1902|Climate change and permafrost",
      "subfield": "climate"
    }
  ],
  "title": "A 2020 permafrost distribution map of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau",
  "title_text": "A 2020 permafrost distribution map of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:20:37Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d3j3g3dgdpvge",
  "venue": "The Cryosphere",
  "versions": [
    {
      "doi": "10.5194/egusphere-2026-345",
      "pid": null,
      "relation": "preprint",
      "title": null,
      "venue": null
    }
  ]
}