{
  "abstract": "Competing-risks data do not identify latent marginal duration distributions or their dependence without additional restrictions. This paper asks whether restrictions introduced to restore identification themselves restrict the observable law. For a two-risk Archimedean model with categorical exclusion restrictions, we derive a necessary-and-sufficient observable characterization. A discrete single-crossing argument identifies the scalar copula parameter from cell-specific overall survival probabilities, while cause indicators recover the remaining allocation and generate additional specification restrictions. We construct an identification-robust, self-normalized quadratic statistic, invert it to obtain confidence sets, and use empty inverted sets as a conservative specification test. Simulations show that the cause indicator can be decisive: under the weakest contrast considered it converts a frequently uninformative survival-based confidence set into an informative joint set without loss of coverage, whereas excessive categorical contrast can eliminate causes from individual cells and make cause-specific recovery inadmissible. The results turn latent exclusion restrictions into refutable restrictions without estimating covariate derivatives.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2609.28866",
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Isfandiyor Akhmedov"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d47gw5kpcpayd.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2609.28866",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "d47gw5kpcpayd",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.28866",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.ME"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2613|Advanced Causal Inference Techniques"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7214287558",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.28866",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-24",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d47gw5kpcpayd.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:24:21Z",
      "native_id": "2609.28866",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.28866"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "arxiv:stat.ME",
      "subfield": "statistics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Refutable Exclusion Restrictions in Competing Risks with Categorical Covariates",
  "title_text": "Refutable Exclusion Restrictions in Competing Risks with Categorical Covariates",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:24:21Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d47gw5kpcpayd",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}