{
  "abstract": "The high-mass black hole population inferred from ground-based observations can substantially affect the number of binaries detectable by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). We use population constraints based on data from the latest LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC-5.0), as well as constraints from the O3 search for intermediate-mass black hole binaries, to forecast the number and masses of binary black holes detectable by LISA. Using the released GWTC-5.0 population posterior, we obtain $6.6^{+5.5}_{-2.2}$ expected detections with signal-to-noise ratio $>8$ in 4 years (median and $90\\%$ credible interval). The alternative population models we consider use a broken power law with two or three Gaussian peaks for either the primary-mass distribution or a common mass distribution for both black holes. For the three-peak model with the common mass distribution, extrapolating from $300$ to $1000M_\\odot$ roughly doubles the median expected number of LISA detections to $\\sim14$. The upper end of its $90\\%$ credible interval rises from tens to thousands of expected detections, although approximations may limit the reliability of the most extreme counts. For the reference GWTC-5.0 population, $39^{+22}_{-11}\\%$ of the binaries detectable by LISA merge during the mission or within $10$ years after its end and are potential multiband sources. Essentially all of these mergers would be detectable by a reference Cosmic Explorer configuration if it is operating at merger. Ground-based measurements of the high-mass population can therefore inform both LISA forecasts and the prospects for observing the same binaries through inspiral and merger.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.37617",
  "author_total": 2,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Ignacio Magaña Hernandez"
    },
    {
      "name": "Antonella Palmese"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d6wsfn8hswpyn.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.37617",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "d6wsfn8hswpyn",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.37617",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.HE"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "gr-qc"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "3103|Pulsars and Gravitational Waves Research"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7224130828",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.37617",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-27",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d6wsfn8hswpyn.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:35:50Z",
      "native_id": "2610.37617",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.37617"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.HE",
      "subfield": "high-energy-astrophysics"
    },
    {
      "field": "physics",
      "origin": "arxiv:gr-qc",
      "subfield": "gravitation"
    }
  ],
  "title": "A Quiet Night in the Millihertz Sky? LISA Forecasts from LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA Populations",
  "title_text": "A Quiet Night in the Millihertz Sky? LISA Forecasts from LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA Populations",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:35:50Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d6wsfn8hswpyn",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}