{
  "abstract": "Groundwater nitrate pollution threatens drinking water safety. Legacy nitrogen (N) in the vadose zone creates a “long tail” of leaching that can persist for decades after policy actions. Here we model global nitrate dynamics in groundwater from 1961 to 2100. By 2020, shallow aquifers had accumulated 162 ± 6 Tg N as nitrate, exceeding the WHO drinking water limit across 10% of global land area. This contamination is sustained by a large nitrate reservoir of 4037 ± 214 Tg N in the vadose zone, which will continue to generate new contamination hotspots for decades. Even under an immediate transition to zero-N-surplus, 4% of affected regions are projected to remain above the WHO limit beyond 2100. To guide effective governance, we classify global croplands into four management archetypes and identify tailored strategies that balance water quality, food security, and soil sustainability. These findings redefine the temporal scope of governance, identify priority regions, and provide a science-based roadmap towards safe groundwater. Groundwater nitrate pollution persists for decades due to a large legacy nitrogen reservoir in the vadose zone. Even with immediate emission cuts, 4% of affected regions will exceed WHO limits beyond 2100, requiring tailored governance strategies.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China",
    "Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China",
    "College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. jiaxx@igsnrr.ac.cn",
    "Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. jiaxx@igsnrr.ac.cn",
    "New Zealand Institute for Bioeconomy Science Limited, Private Bag 4704, Christchurch Mail Centre, Christchurch, New Zealand",
    "State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an, China",
    "Zuckerberg Institute for Water Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Sede Boqer Campus, Negev, Israel",
    "Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster, UK",
    "State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, China",
    "State Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Desertification Control, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Xianyang, China",
    "College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. liaoxy@igsnrr.ac.cn",
    "Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. liaoxy@igsnrr.ac.cn"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 12,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        1
      ],
      "name": "Weidong Zhao",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-4444-6595"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2,
        3
      ],
      "name": "Xiaoxu Jia",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-6581-9717"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        1
      ],
      "name": "Liantao Niu",
      "orcid": "0009-0009-3242-9016"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        4
      ],
      "name": "Wei Hu",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-5911-178X"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        5
      ],
      "name": "Ting Yang",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-1330-5930"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        6
      ],
      "name": "Tuvia Turkeltaub",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-1278-3845"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        7
      ],
      "name": "Andrew M. Binley",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-0938-9070"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        8
      ],
      "name": "Yongqiu Xia",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-6856-5671"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        9
      ],
      "name": "Xiaorong Wei",
      "orcid": "0009-0000-2746-5391"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        1
      ],
      "name": "You Li",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-4454-482X"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        1,
        9
      ],
      "name": "Ming'an Shao"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        10,
        11
      ],
      "name": "Xiaoyong Liao",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-9287-3498"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d73bnhax5yh57.bib",
  "cited_by": 6,
  "doi": "10.1038/s41467-026-75014-8",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "d73bnhax5yh57",
  "issns": [
    "2041-1723"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-75014-8",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY-NC-ND",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC-ND",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "2304|Soil and Water Nutrient Dynamics"
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  "openalex": "W7166739403",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-75014-8_reference.pdf",
  "pmcid": "PMC13458086",
  "pmid": "42380202",
  "published": "2026-06-30",
  "publisher": "Nature Portfolio",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d73bnhax5yh57.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-06T13:20:43Z",
      "native_id": "W7166739403",
      "source": "openalex",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-75014-8"
    }
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  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "chemistry",
      "origin": "openalex:2304|Soil and Water Nutrient Dynamics",
      "subfield": "environmental"
    }
  ],
  "title": "The long tail of nitrate pollution in groundwater challenges governance of global water quality",
  "title_text": "The long tail of nitrate pollution in groundwater challenges governance of global water quality",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-09T13:21:21Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d73bnhax5yh57",
  "venue": "Nature Communications",
  "versions": []
}