{
  "abstract": "Routine H&E-histopathology captures spatial snapshots of tumor ecosystems, yet computational pathology largely treats them as textures without explicit links to underlying kinetics. We show that patient-specific parameters of a mechanistic reaction-diffusion model can be inferred from a single biopsy. Cell-nucleus point patterns are fitted jointly to the analytical two-point correlation function and power spectral density, recovering patient-specific mechanistic proliferation and diffusion rates across eleven multicenter cohorts. Derived dispersion length and front velocity define mechanistic phenotypes stratifying progression-free and overall survival and adding information independent of routine covariates. We illustrate counterfactual radiotherapy simulations in glioblastoma and show that a virtual clinical trial deescalating histology-calibrated faster-growing tumors to hypofractionation while dose-intensifying slower-growing tumors adds 96.7 days of restricted mean progression-free in silico survival over standard of care (permutation p < 0.001 against random allocation to the same arms). This provides a low-barrier transition from routine histopathology to mechanistically interpretable model-based forward simulations.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "University of Salzburg"
  ],
  "article_type": "PUBLISHAHEADOFPRINT",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 23,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "P. Schlicke"
    },
    {
      "name": "C. Ercan"
    },
    {
      "name": "S. Ranjbar"
    },
    {
      "name": "A. N. Seldomridge"
    },
    {
      "name": "S. Aggarwal"
    },
    {
      "name": "A. Mehta"
    },
    {
      "name": "T. P. Sainz"
    },
    {
      "name": "M. U. Zahid"
    },
    {
      "name": "P. Fang"
    },
    {
      "name": "V. A. Hofmann"
    },
    {
      "name": "S. Pasetto"
    },
    {
      "name": "T. Cisneros Napravnik"
    },
    {
      "name": "N. Puebla-Osorio"
    },
    {
      "name": "C. Kuttler"
    },
    {
      "name": "A. Klopp"
    },
    {
      "name": "L. Colbert"
    },
    {
      "name": "A. M. Holder"
    },
    {
      "name": "R. Weiser"
    },
    {
      "name": "S. H. Lin"
    },
    {
      "name": "C. A. Torres-Cabala"
    },
    {
      "name": "F. Vega"
    },
    {
      "name": "Y. Yuan"
    },
    {
      "name": "H. Enderling"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d76jmhrnpfn13.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.64898/2026.09.10.26362768",
  "fulltext_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.10.26362768v1.full",
  "id": "d76jmhrnpfn13",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.10.26362768v1",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "medrxiv",
      "oncology"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2611|Mathematical Biology Tumor Growth"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7212363967",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.10.26362768v1.full.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-10",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d76jmhrnpfn13.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:18:27Z",
      "native_id": "10.64898/2026.09.10.26362768",
      "source": "medrxiv",
      "url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.10.26362768v1"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "medrxiv:oncology",
      "subfield": "oncology"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Effective tumor kinetics inferred from single routine H&E biopsies enable counterfactual virtual radiotherapy trials",
  "title_text": "Effective tumor kinetics inferred from single routine H&E biopsies enable counterfactual virtual radiotherapy trials",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:18:27Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/d76jmhrnpfn13",
  "venue": "medRxiv",
  "versions": []
}