{
  "abstract": "The radio–soft γ -ray data of the Galactic black hole binary XTE J1859+226 showed that discrete jets are launched when the inner radius of the accretion disk ( R in ) rapidly approaches the innermost stable circular orbit (ISCO). Given the correlations among the X-ray fractional variability amplitude (rms), R in , and the X-ray hardness, previous phenomenological findings related to jet ejections (“jet line” and sharp drops in rms) also indicate that the rapid shrinkage of R in down to the ISCO turns on the jet formation. In order to make clear how these properties appear in other objects, we investigated the X-ray and radio data of XTE J1550−564, GX 339−4, and MAXI J1820+070. We found that all the four sources show drops in R in and rms 1–10 days ahead of a jet activity, and exhibit no huge jumps in the accretion rates prior to jet ejections. XTE J1859 and MAXI J1820 show the jet activities under sub-Eddington accretion. Models for the jet production that require an enhancement in M ̇ or a super-Eddington accretion rate are unlikely. Another behavior common to multiple sources is the curved shape of the rms– R in correlation. Therefore, monitoring of R in seems to be suitable to predict the timing of jet ejections. When both R in and rms continuously decrease and when R in is about to reach the ISCO, alerts can be circulated as a “jet forecast” for triggering Target-of-Opportunity observations.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "University of Toyama",
    "Nagoya University"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 2,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Toshihiro Kawaguchi",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-3866-9645"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Kazutaka Yamaoka",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-3841-0980"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/dbc144dwf0ggs.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.3847/1538-4357/aeacc6",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "dbc144dwf0ggs",
  "issns": [
    "1538-4357",
    "0004-637X"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/aeacc6",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "feed-journal",
      "astronomy/general"
    ]
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  "pdf_url": "https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/aeacc6/pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-11-05",
  "publisher": "American Astronomical Society",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/dbc144dwf0ggs.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-05T12:20:12Z",
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      "url": "https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/aeacc6"
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      "url": "https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/aeacc6"
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  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "journal-openalex:3103|Stellar, planetary, and galactic studies",
      "subfield": "stellar"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Jet Forecast: Timing of Discrete Jet Ejections of Stellar-mass Black Holes Anticipated via X-Ray Properties",
  "title_text": "Jet Forecast: Timing of Discrete Jet Ejections of Stellar-mass Black Holes Anticipated via X-Ray Properties",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-07T00:20:58Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/dbc144dwf0ggs",
  "venue": "The Astrophysical Journal",
  "versions": []
}