{
  "abstract": "The radio -- soft $γ$-ray data of the Galactic black hole binary XTE J1859+226 showed that discrete jets are launched when the inner radius of the accretion disk ($R_{\\rm in}$) rapidly approaches the innermost stable circular orbit (ISCO). Given the correlations among the X-ray fractional variability amplitude (rms), $R_{\\rm in}$, and the X-ray hardness, previous phenomenological findings related to jet ejections (``jet line'' and sharp drops of rms) also indicate that the rapid shrinkage of $R_{\\rm in}$ down to the ISCO turns on the jet formation. In order to make clear how these properties appear in other objects, we investigated the X-ray and radio data of XTE J1550-564, GX 339-4, and MAXI J1820+070. We found that all the four sources show drops of $R_{\\rm in}$ and rms 1-10 days ahead of a jet activity, and exhibit no huge jumps of the accretion rates prior to jet ejections. XTE J1859 and MAXI J1820 show the jet activities under sub-Eddington accretion. Models for the jet production that require an enhancement of $\\dot{M}$ or a super-Eddington accretion rate are unlikely. Another behavior common to multiple sources is the curved shape of the rms--$R_{\\rm in}$ correlation. Therefore, monitoring of $R_{\\rm in}$ seems to be suitable to predict the timing of jet ejections. When both $R_{\\rm in}$ and rms continuously decrease and when $R_{\\rm in}$ is about to reach the ISCO, alerts can be circulated as a ``jet forecast'' for triggering Target-of-Opportunity observations.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2609.34947",
  "author_total": 2,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Toshihiro Kawaguchi"
    },
    {
      "name": "Kazutaka Yamaoka"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/dbfkzng8cpvtx.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2609.34947",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "dbfkzng8cpvtx",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.34947",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.HE"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "physics.plasm-ph"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "3103|Astrophysical Phenomena and Observations"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7214744646",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.34947",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-28",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/dbfkzng8cpvtx.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:25:12Z",
      "native_id": "2609.34947",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.34947"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.HE",
      "subfield": "high-energy-astrophysics"
    },
    {
      "field": "physics",
      "origin": "arxiv:physics.plasm-ph",
      "subfield": "plasma"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Jet Forecast: Timing of Discrete Jet Ejections of Stellar-Mass Black Holes Anticipated via X-ray Properties",
  "title_text": "Jet Forecast: Timing of Discrete Jet Ejections of Stellar-Mass Black Holes Anticipated via X-ray Properties",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:25:12Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/dbfkzng8cpvtx",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}