{
  "abstract": "IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.6% to 32.4% (+0.8pp, n=1530)\n\nSAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MANIPULATION-phase filter would have excluded trades entered outside that quarterly phase. In the current window, only the USDCHF LONG (rizzy7m) and possibly the AUDUSD LONG (rizzy7m) fall within a plausible MANIPULATION phase, but the exact phase boundary is undefined in your data — so the filter would likely have blocked most of the 10 listed trades, including the 4 CLOSED/WINs. That would reduce the live win count from 4 wins/3 losses (among closed) to roughly 1–2 wins/0–1 losses, a net PnL drop despite a higher win rate percentage. The +0.8pp backtest gain is not visible here; it would have sacrificed absolute returns for marginal selectivity.\n\nOVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, the filter may improve win rate slightly (as backtested) but likely at the cost of trade frequen\n\nAuthor: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Independent Researcher, United Kingdom"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Andrew Stewart Caldin"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/dcx0s1bhda7j0.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.23553564",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "dcx0s1bhda7j0",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23553564",
  "language": "eng",
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-22",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/dcx0s1bhda7j0.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-05T12:21:21Z",
      "native_id": "23553564",
      "source": "zenodo",
      "url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23553564"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [],
  "title": "LAB #4499 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.6% to 32.4% ( — E8 Intelligence Research",
  "title_text": "LAB #4499 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.6% to 32.4% ( — E8 Intelligence Research",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-05T12:21:21Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/dcx0s1bhda7j0",
  "venue": "Zenodo",
  "versions": []
}