{
  "abstract": "Climate boundaries are planetary boundaries for the climate system: limits within which humanity can sustainably prosper. Here we introduce a modelling framework to analyse global warming, ocean acidification, sea-level rise and Arctic sea-ice melt. Using a reduced-form model, we map out anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation management pathways compatible with these boundaries. We define safety levels as the probability to stay within one or several boundaries considering physical uncertainty. If CO₂ emissions peak in 2030, net-zero CO₂ is reached in 2050, and carbon dioxide removal capacity is 10 PgC yr−1, without solar radiation management, remaining within the global warming boundary of 2 °C exhibits a safety level of 80%. When all four boundaries are considered together, the safety level drops to 35%. Our results highlight key trade-offs in mitigation options and suggest a need to assess climate boundaries holistically to develop sustainable future strategies.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 6,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Thomas Bossy"
    },
    {
      "name": "Philippe Ciais"
    },
    {
      "name": "Katsumasa Tanaka"
    },
    {
      "name": "Franck Lecocq"
    },
    {
      "name": "Philippe Bousquet"
    },
    {
      "name": "Thomas Gasser"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/dp6h3d0qdkyz3.bib",
  "cited_by": 6,
  "doi": "10.1038/s41558-025-02460-5",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "dp6h3d0qdkyz3",
  "issns": [
    "1758-678X",
    "1758-6798"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://hal.science/hal-05468799v1",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY-NC-ND-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC-ND 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "hal",
      "0.sde"
    ],
    [
      "hal",
      "0.sdu"
    ],
    [
      "hal",
      "1.sde.mcg"
    ],
    [
      "hal",
      "1.sdu.envi"
    ],
    [
      "hal",
      "1.sdu.stu"
    ],
    [
      "hal",
      "2.sdu.stu.cl"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2002|Climate Change Policy and Economics"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W4415849486",
  "pdf_url": "https://hal.science/hal-05468799/document",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-04",
  "publisher": "Nature Publishing Group",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/dp6h3d0qdkyz3.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:29Z",
      "native_id": "hal-05468799",
      "source": "hal",
      "url": "https://hal.science/hal-05468799v1"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "hal:1.sde.mcg",
      "subfield": "climate"
    },
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "hal:0.sde",
      "subfield": "environmental-science"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Spaces of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions compatible with climate boundaries",
  "title_text": "Spaces of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions compatible with climate boundaries",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:29Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/dp6h3d0qdkyz3",
  "venue": "Nature Climate Change",
  "versions": []
}