{
  "abstract": "BackgroundInadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) remain key risk factors for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) in Nigeria. However, the complex, non-linear determinants of household WASH access are poorly understood, limiting targeted NTD control.\n\nMethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional secondary analysis of 30,045 households from the nationally representative 2024 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS). Four supervised machine learning models -- Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and XGBoost -- were trained to predict improved household WASH access. Model performance was evaluated using accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and AUC. Explainability was achieved using SHAP values and feature importance.\n\nResultsXGBoost achieved the highest performance: 83.3% accuracy, 86.9% precision, 92.3% recall, 89.5% F1-score, and AUC 0.877. Random Forest performed similarly with AUC 0.868. SHAP analysis identified household wealth index, improved sanitation, place of residence, and water availability at handwashing stations as the top predictors. Rural households in northern Nigeria and those in the lowest wealth quintiles had the lowest predicted probability of improved WASH.\n\nConclusionsExplainable machine learning effectively identifies populations most vulnerable to WASH inequities. Targeting low-wealth, rural households in northern Nigeria with integrated WASH interventions could yield the greatest gains for NTD control. Our open-source code provides a reproducible framework for evidence-based resource allocation.\n\nAuthor SummaryNeglected tropical diseases thrive where water and sanitation are poor. In Nigeria, millions still lack access to basic WASH, but programs dont know exactly which households to target first.\n\nUsing data from 30,045 households in the 2024 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey, we used artificial intelligence to predict who is most likely to lack improved WASH. The XGBoost model was 83% accurate and showed that household wealth, type of toilet, rural location, and water at handwashing stations are the biggest factors.\n\nOur results suggest that NTD programs should focus integrated WASH support on low-wealth, rural households, especially in northern Nigeria. By using this open-source AI tool, Nigeria can move from blanket interventions to precision targeting and accelerate progress toward NTD elimination.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Federal University Lokoja"
  ],
  "article_type": "PUBLISHAHEADOFPRINT",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 3,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "N. L. Dorbor"
    },
    {
      "name": "S. K. Babale"
    },
    {
      "name": "G. Alege"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/dpdvg1aba2xyj.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.64898/2026.09.14.26363014",
  "fulltext_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.14.26363014v1.full",
  "id": "dpdvg1aba2xyj",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.14.26363014v1",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "medrxiv",
      "epidemiology"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2916|Child Nutrition and Water Access"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7213233237",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.14.26363014v1.full.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-14",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/dpdvg1aba2xyj.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:18:39Z",
      "native_id": "10.64898/2026.09.14.26363014",
      "source": "medrxiv",
      "url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.14.26363014v1"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "medrxiv:epidemiology",
      "subfield": "epidemiology-public-health"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Predicting and Explaining WASH Inequities in Nigeria A Machine Learning Approach to Accelerate NTD Elimination",
  "title_text": "Predicting and Explaining WASH Inequities in Nigeria A Machine Learning Approach to Accelerate NTD Elimination",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:18:39Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/dpdvg1aba2xyj",
  "venue": "medRxiv",
  "versions": []
}