{
  "abstract": "This study develops a survey-calibrated, path-dependent agent-based microsimulation for evaluating crime and violence reduction policies in Bolivia. A synthetic population is constructed from the 2025 Household Survey and the fourth-quarter 2025 Continuous Employment Survey using official expansion weights and cross-survey donor matching. The model combines heterogeneous agents, place-based risk, criminal adaptation, institutional capacity, community organization, and multiple policy channels. Uncertainty is propagated through adaptive Gaussian-process and tree-ensemble emulators, global sensitivity analysis, tempered ensemble MCMC, and predictive meta-calibration. Simulated portfolios include focused policing, community control, Guardabosques-type incentives, social prevention, environmental interventions, justice reforms, investigation, rehabilitation, and financial-network disruption. Results are interpreted as structural policy scenarios rather than causal forecasts, with explicit attention to displacement, distributional effects, implementation capacity, and multi-objective trade-offs.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.03895",
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Ricardo Alonzo Fernández-Salguero"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/dpprnf55yfj7y.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.03895",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "dpprnf55yfj7y",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.03895",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "econ.EM"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.AP"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "3312|Crime Patterns and Interventions"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7220714312",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.03895",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-02",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/dpprnf55yfj7y.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:27:16Z",
      "native_id": "2610.03895",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.03895"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "arxiv:stat.AP",
      "subfield": "statistics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "A Path-Dependent Agent-Based Microsimulation of Crime and Violence Reduction Policy Portfolios in Bolivia: Survey Calibration, Adaptive Emulator Ensembles, Global Sensitivity, Tempered MCMC, and Multi-Objective Policy Analysis",
  "title_text": "A Path-Dependent Agent-Based Microsimulation of Crime and Violence Reduction Policy Portfolios in Bolivia: Survey Calibration, Adaptive Emulator Ensembles, Global Sensitivity, Tempered MCMC, and Multi-Objective Policy Analysis",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:27:16Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/dpprnf55yfj7y",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}