{
  "abstract": "Background: Present bias, a central concept in behavioral economics, offers a useful framework for understanding why smokers often prioritize the immediate rewards of smoking over its long-term health consequences. We examined whether personalized disease-risk prediction information derived from health examination results could serve as a nudge-based intervention to reduce present bias and improve smoking cessation outcomes.\n\nMethods: The study included 367 heavy smokers with a smoking history of at least 20 pack-years who were enrolled in a residential smoking cessation camp at a Regional Tobacco Control Centre in Cheongju, Korea, from 2021 to 2024. Participants were randomly assigned to receive either an AI-driven personalized report estimating their 4-year risks of developing nine major diseases (n = 171, 46.6%) or no report (n = 196, 53.4%). Smoking cessation was assessed through week 24.\n\nResults: Although cessation rates declined over time in both groups, they remained higher in the intervention group, with the largest between-group difference observed at week 12 (82.5% vs. 64.8%, p < 0.001). The between-group difference remained significant through week 18 but was not significant thereafter in the overall sample. In subgroup analyses, a significant difference persisted through week 24 only among participants aged <65 years (p = 0.035). In fully adjusted logistic regression models, the intervention was associated with higher odds of smoking cessation at week 12 (OR = 2.49, 95% CI, 1.47–4.21) and week 16 (OR = 1.74, 95% CI, 1.08–2.77). Perceived importance of quitting and cessation self-efficacy were also higher in the intervention group.\n\nConclusions: These findings suggest that personalized disease-risk prediction information may support smoking cessation by increasing smokers’ perceived susceptibility to smoking-related diseases and the salience of future health consequences, thereby shifting their decisional balance toward quitting.\n\nKey messages: • Among heavy smokers who intended to quit, a personalized disease-risk prediction report was associated with significantly higher short- to mid-term smoking cessation success than in the control group.\n\n• Personalized disease-risk information may promote quitting by increasing the salience of future health consequences, enhancing perceived susceptibility, and helping counteract present bias.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": "abstract",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 5,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "JE Park"
    },
    {
      "name": "SH Park"
    },
    {
      "name": "JH Park"
    },
    {
      "name": "SY Kim"
    },
    {
      "name": "HJ Kim"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/dwa3xm4agzswr.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.329",
  "fulltext_url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13697868/",
  "id": "dwa3xm4agzswr",
  "issns": [
    "1101-1262",
    "1464-360X"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.329",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY-NC-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "heading",
      "3. PARALLEL PROGRAMME"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "AcademicSubjects/MED00860"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "AcademicSubjects/SOC01210"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "AcademicSubjects/SOC02610"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2737|Smoking Behavior and Cessation"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7223675862",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13697868/pdf/?tool=EBI",
  "pmcid": "PMC13697868",
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-01",
  "publisher": "Oxford University Press",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/dwa3xm4agzswr.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:18:51Z",
      "native_id": "PMC13697868",
      "source": "pmc",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.329"
    },
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:21:34Z",
      "native_id": "PMC:PMC13697868",
      "source": "europepmc",
      "url": "https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC13697868"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "openalex:2737|Smoking Behavior and Cessation",
      "subfield": "physiology"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Enhancing the Salience of Future Health Risks to Promote Smoking Cessation: A Randomized Nudge Trial",
  "title_text": "Enhancing the Salience of Future Health Risks to Promote Smoking Cessation: A Randomized Nudge Trial",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:34:50Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/dwa3xm4agzswr",
  "venue": "The European Journal of Public Health",
  "versions": []
}