{
  "abstract": "Under climate change, will forests grow more or less? The answer differs from place to place, obscuring the overall direction. Here we trace it by learning nonlinear climate--tree-growth relationships from 4110 Northern Hemisphere tree-ring chronologies recorded since 1902, spanning more than 12 million ring-width measurements, and projecting them through the twenty-first century under CMIP6 scenarios. Projected growth declines, and gains and losses are temporally asymmetric: once losses emerge, they are rarely reversed (90% retained), whereas gains fade (56% retained). This asymmetry holds in every well-sampled region and strengthens under higher forcing. The decline itself is driven by warming and rising atmospheric water demand, whose broadly negative contribution outweighs precipitation-driven gains. Across the Northern Hemisphere, growth does not just move between gains and losses; it is drawn steadily downward.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Institute of Environmental Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Rehovot, Israel"
  ],
  "article_type": "New results",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 5,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "E. Feuer"
    },
    {
      "name": "S. Klesse"
    },
    {
      "name": "G. Amir"
    },
    {
      "name": "N. Peleg"
    },
    {
      "name": "Y. Mau"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/e1f5m38wxkt85.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.64898/2026.09.06.749676",
  "fulltext_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.06.749676v1.full",
  "id": "e1f5m38wxkt85",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.06.749676v1",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "biorxiv",
      "ecology"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "1902|Tree-ring climate responses"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7212419119",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.06.749676v1.full.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-06",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/e1f5m38wxkt85.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:21:51Z",
      "native_id": "10.64898/2026.09.06.749676",
      "source": "biorxiv",
      "url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.06.749676v1"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "biology",
      "origin": "biorxiv:ecology",
      "subfield": "ecology"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Losses outlast gains in Northern Hemisphere tree growth under climate change",
  "title_text": "Losses outlast gains in Northern Hemisphere tree growth under climate change",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:21:51Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/e1f5m38wxkt85",
  "venue": "bioRxiv",
  "versions": []
}