{
  "abstract": "Delivered-cost estimates are often used as proxies for hydrogen import prices. Yet they measure average supply-chain costs, whereas marginal prices measure the system value of an additional unit. Market interactions can make the two diverge, potentially biasing long-term price assumptions. We quantify this gap using an 81-region global hydrogen-market model, comparing each region's costs and prices when only its demand is active and when all regions' demands are active. The 2045 price-cost gap is positive in 78 regions and averages 63 EUR/MWh (52% of the single-buyer cost) on a demand-weighted basis. Only 12 EUR/MWh reflects higher average sourcing costs due to competing demand. The remaining 51 EUR/MWh is the difference between the global-market price and the delivered portfolio's average cost. In several regions, wholesale prices rise while average delivered costs fall. Hydrogen strategies should distinguish delivered-cost benchmarks from market-price expectations, as low-cost supply does not guarantee low regional market prices.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.41447",
  "author_total": 4,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Bastian Weißenburger"
    },
    {
      "name": "Martin Wietschel"
    },
    {
      "name": "Patrick Plötz"
    },
    {
      "name": "Russell McKenna"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/efj2rfn8r5xvm.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.41447",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "efj2rfn8r5xvm",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41447",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "econ.GN"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "physics.soc-ph"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "q-fin.EC"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.41447",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-30",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/efj2rfn8r5xvm.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-02T12:21:15Z",
      "native_id": "2610.41447",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41447"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "physics",
      "origin": "arxiv:physics.soc-ph",
      "subfield": "statistical-nonlinear"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Why delivered costs understate prices in an integrated global hydrogen market",
  "title_text": "Why delivered costs understate prices in an integrated global hydrogen market",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-04T15:20:51Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/efj2rfn8r5xvm",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}