{
  "abstract": "The 2025 European fire season was historically extreme, with record-breaking burned area exceeding 1,400,000 ha, and multiple regionally unprecedented wildfires. Emerging fire regimes and extreme wildfire behaviour in Europe pose increasing adaptation challenges. Extreme event attribution of a recent fire season, combined with analysis of changes in vegetation and land use, provides insight into the effect of climate and environmental change on high impact events. We analyse five regions that experienced particularly extreme wildfire activity in 2025 (northwestern Iberia, northern and western Britain, Occitania, the eastern Adriatic/Ionian, and northern and western Türkiye) capturing a diverse range of driving weather conditions and fire regimes. Strong trends towards drier summer summers and extreme weekly vapour pressure deficit (VPD) were found, with summer drought emergent from natural variability in most southern European regions, and VPD extreme emergent in reanalysis data for all regions. Changes in VPD are the main reason why combined hot, dry, and windy conditions have become more frequent than expected from natural variability. This emergence is seen in both reanalysis data and climate models for the Iberian, Adriatic/Ionian and Turkish regions. In contrast, in the British and Occitanian regions, models do not show observed trends.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK",
    "Levehulme Centre for Wildfires, Environment and Society, Imperial College London, London, UK",
    "Laboratory for Climate Sciences and the Environment, Paris Saclay University, Paris, France",
    "School of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, Chania, Greece",
    "Department of Geography, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK",
    "Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Türkiye",
    "Institute of Geosciences, Polytechnic University of Tirana, Tirana, Albania",
    "Department of Compound Environmental Risks, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, UFZ, Leipzig, Germany",
    "Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland",
    "Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 12,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        1
      ],
      "name": "Theodore Keeping",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-5603-6980"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Mariam Zachariah",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-9124-5120"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2,
        1
      ],
      "name": "Olivia Haas",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-3957-7707"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1,
        3
      ],
      "name": "Manolis G. Grillakis",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-4228-1803"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Clair R. Barnes",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-7806-7913"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        4
      ],
      "name": "Gareth D. Clay",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-8477-2774"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        5
      ],
      "name": "Bikem Ekberzade",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-3271-2040"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        6
      ],
      "name": "O. Jaupaj",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-0175-5005"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        7,
        8
      ],
      "name": "Andreia F. S. Ribeiro",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-0481-0337"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        9
      ],
      "name": "Ricardo Machado Trigo",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-4183-9852"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1,
        3
      ],
      "name": "Apostolos Voulgarakis",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-6656-4437"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Friederike E. L. Otto",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-8166-5917"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/ep07n0tmmsbdx.bib",
  "cited_by": 6,
  "doi": "10.5194/nhess-26-3761-2026",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "ep07n0tmmsbdx",
  "issns": [
    "1561-8633",
    "1684-9981"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3761-2026",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "2306|Fire effects on ecosystems"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7202392511",
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-08-13",
  "publisher": "Copernicus Publications",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/ep07n0tmmsbdx.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-05T13:21:11Z",
      "native_id": "W7202392511",
      "source": "openalex",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3761-2026"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "openalex:2306|Fire effects on ecosystems",
      "subfield": "climate"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Attribution of the record breaking 2025 European fire season to climate change",
  "title_text": "Attribution of the record breaking 2025 European fire season to climate change",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-08T13:20:55Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/ep07n0tmmsbdx",
  "venue": "Natural hazards and earth system sciences",
  "versions": []
}