{
  "abstract": "The opening of the Suez Canal abruptly reconnected the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, collapsing a geological barrier that had separated their biotas for millions of years. This exchange offers a natural experiment to determine whether tropical species' spread at their cold-edge range is driven by acute thermal shocks (marine heatwaves) or by progressive easing of physiological constraints under sustained warming. We analyzed 1,059 first-arrival time series for 75 non-indigenous fish species across the Mediterranean, explicitly accounting for progressive salinification, oceanographic connectivity, and historical canal enlargement. Our models demonstrate that colonization dynamics are overwhelmingly dominated by ecological momentum-the time-dependent geographic spread of populations-and facilitated by chronic background warming. Marine heatwaves explain negligible variance and show no detectable effect on colonization success. Instead, warming operates as a stage-dependent continuous climatic facilitator, accelerating post-establishment expansion, rather than triggering introductions. Thus, this shift toward warm-adapted communities is governed by chronic warming, with the Suez Canal triggering the reorganization of Mediterranean biogeography.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (CSIC)"
  ],
  "article_type": "New results",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 6,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "S. Chaikin"
    },
    {
      "name": "G. Vagenas"
    },
    {
      "name": "M. Matias"
    },
    {
      "name": "M. Galanidi"
    },
    {
      "name": "A. Zenetos"
    },
    {
      "name": "M. Araujo"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/epz4x4fgfs5cj.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.64898/2026.09.03.749106",
  "fulltext_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.03.749106v1.full",
  "id": "epz4x4fgfs5cj",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.03.749106v1",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-NC-ND",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC-ND",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "biorxiv",
      "ecology"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2306|Marine Ecology and Invasive Species"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7211872614",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.03.749106v1.full.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-03",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/epz4x4fgfs5cj.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:19:58Z",
      "native_id": "10.64898/2026.09.03.749106",
      "source": "biorxiv",
      "url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.03.749106v1"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "biology",
      "origin": "biorxiv:ecology",
      "subfield": "ecology"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Chronic warming, not heatwaves, predicts tropical fish colonization in the Mediterranean",
  "title_text": "Chronic warming, not heatwaves, predicts tropical fish colonization in the Mediterranean",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:19:58Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/epz4x4fgfs5cj",
  "venue": "bioRxiv",
  "versions": []
}