{
  "abstract": "Okanagan sockeye salmon have shown a strong recovery over the past three decades, but the contribution of environmental conditions and management actions to this recovery has not been determined. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model linking spawner abundances to fry emergence observations to evaluate how flow and water temperature during adult upstream migration and incubation periods influence spawner-to-fry production. Production declined by 62% in years with earlier onset and longer duration of periods when warm river temperatures created barriers to adult migration, indicating that migration conditions can have carry-over effects on reproductive success even when spawners successfully reach the spawning grounds. Additionally, production was 46% lower when flows fell above or below the management target range designed to minimize scour and desiccation during egg incubation. In contrast, we found little support for effects of pre-spawning flows or incubation temperature on production. These findings provide quantitative evidence that current flow management is increasing freshwater spawner-to-fry production and has likely contributed to the Okanagan sockeye recovery. Effective flow management may therefore help offset climate-driven impacts that increasingly threaten this population.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Fisheries and Oceans Canada"
  ],
  "article_type": "New results",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 4,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "P. L. Thompson"
    },
    {
      "name": "K. Alex"
    },
    {
      "name": "H. W. Stiff"
    },
    {
      "name": "A. D. Ogden"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/etfqdh4kz44ed.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.64898/2026.09.25.754467",
  "fulltext_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.25.754467v1.full",
  "id": "etfqdh4kz44ed",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.25.754467v1",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-NC-ND",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC-ND",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "biorxiv",
      "ecology"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2309|Fish Ecology and Management Studies"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7214640076",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.25.754467v1.full.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-25",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/etfqdh4kz44ed.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:24:51Z",
      "native_id": "10.64898/2026.09.25.754467",
      "source": "biorxiv",
      "url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.25.754467v1"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "biology",
      "origin": "biorxiv:ecology",
      "subfield": "ecology"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Temperature and flow impacts on spawner-to-fry production in Okanagan sockeye salmon",
  "title_text": "Temperature and flow impacts on spawner-to-fry production in Okanagan sockeye salmon",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:24:51Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/etfqdh4kz44ed",
  "venue": "bioRxiv",
  "versions": []
}