{
  "abstract": "Granular slip forecasting can conflate material state, loading progress, and the geometry of event-centered sampling. We separated these contributions in slowly sheared two-dimensional frictional disks using a compact neural score of stress, pressure, coordination, non-affine motion, and force-network observables. The model was developed on 36 trajectories and frozen efore testing on 18 new trajectories under two nested stress-drop definitions. Inspection of held-out results revealed post-event sampling asymmetry; recovery-aware analyses are therefore descriptive. With trajectories weighted equally, the compact score ranked near-slip windows above both prevalence and within-trajectory circular-phase controls under both definitions (representative average precision 0.310 versus prevalence 0.173; phase-null upper bound 0.257). Loading-history coordinates ranked more strongly, reaching 0.534 for causal elapsed strain. The recovery-aware rule retained 78.4\\% of activity-gated events and preferentially selected longer preceding intervals; ranking by time since the previous catalogued event remained compatible with a count-conditioned geometry null. Compact observables thus contain temporally aligned slip information, but stronger loading-history baselines and window-geometry sensitivity bound that evidence. These startup data do not isolate a state-specific short-horizon precursor beyond loading history or support a renewal interpretation of elapsed-strain ranking.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.00124",
  "author_total": 2,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Ruixin Zhou"
    },
    {
      "name": "Boliang Yu"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/f5gehec4h91vg.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.00124",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "f5gehec4h91vg",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.00124",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "cond-mat.soft"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "cond-mat.stat-mech"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "cs.LG"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "physics.comp-ph"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "1908|earthquake and tectonic studies"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7216430292",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.00124",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-01",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/f5gehec4h91vg.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:26:03Z",
      "native_id": "2610.00124",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.00124"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "physics",
      "origin": "arxiv:physics.comp-ph",
      "subfield": "computational"
    },
    {
      "field": "physics",
      "origin": "arxiv:cond-mat.soft",
      "subfield": "condensed-matter"
    },
    {
      "field": "physics",
      "origin": "arxiv:cond-mat.stat-mech",
      "subfield": "statistical-nonlinear"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Loading history and window geometry bound compact-state slip ranking during granular shear startup",
  "title_text": "Loading history and window geometry bound compact-state slip ranking during granular shear startup",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:26:03Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/f5gehec4h91vg",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}