{
  "abstract": "Background\n\nRoutine laboratory data may support CKD follow-up. We evaluated 12- and 24-month documented progression prediction and exploratory review outputs.Methods\n\nThis retrospective single-center study used 2012-2025 hospital records. CKD required objective persistence for ≥90 days. Development used 2012-2021 indices; temporal evaluation used unseen patients indexed in 2022-2023. Among horizon-evaluable indices, the endpoint was documented sustained ≥40% estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline or kidney failure. Development selected 12-month and conditional second-year models combined for non-decreasing cumulative risk. Laboratory and documentation outputs were assessed separately.Results\n\nTemporal evaluation of horizon-evaluable patients included 143 patients (10 event patients; 21/364 positive indices) at 12 months and 87 patients (22 event patients; 50/247 positive indices) at 24 months. Area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) was 0.510 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.217-0.789) and 0.677 (0.459-0.853), respectively. Incremental 12-month AUPRC over age, sex and current eGFR was uncertain (difference -0.009, 95% CI -0.171 to 0.123). At 24 months, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was higher than the core comparator (difference 0.057, 95% CI 0.007-0.121); clinical utility was not evaluated. Calibration slopes were 0.996 (0.689-1.640) and 1.028 (0.676-1.661); wide CIs precluded reliable individual-risk calibration. Documentation ranking did not improve on prior-mention strategies.Conclusions\n\nThis study is proof of concept. Small event counts, follow-up selection and uncertain incremental value limit interpretation. Multisite validation is required before implementation.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Department of Laboratory Medicine, Shanghai Fengxian District Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital, Shanghai, China.",
    "Department of Laboratory and Pathology, 72nd Group Army Hospital, Huzhou, China.",
    "Department of Laboratory Medicine, Wangjiang Subdistrict Community Healthcare Center, Shangcheng District, Hangzhou, China.",
    "Department of Anesthesiology, 72nd Group Army Hospital, Huzhou Normal University, Huzhou, China.",
    "Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, The Second People's Hospital of Huai'an, the Affiliated Huai'an Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Huai'an, China.",
    "Department of General Surgery, 72nd Group Army Hospital, Huzhou Normal University, Huzhou, China."
  ],
  "article_type": "research article",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 8,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Mudan Jin"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Jie Jing"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2
      ],
      "name": "Di Lin"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Jing Li"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Lang Zhang"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        3
      ],
      "name": "Pinhao Guo"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        4
      ],
      "name": "Zheng Wang"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        5
      ],
      "name": "Xingzhu Wen"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/f63x99pr95ynn.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1080/0886022x.2026.2753249",
  "fulltext_url": "https://europepmc.org/articles/PMC13717766",
  "id": "f63x99pr95ynn",
  "issns": [
    "0886-022X",
    "1525-6049"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42951370",
  "language": "eng",
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "heading",
      "Chronic Kidney Disease and Progression"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Research Article"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2727|Chronic Kidney Disease and Diabetes"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7224116977",
  "pdf_url": "https://europepmc.org/articles/PMC13717766?pdf=render",
  "pmcid": "PMC13717766",
  "pmid": "42951370",
  "published": "2026-10-28",
  "publisher": "Taylor & Francis",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/f63x99pr95ynn.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-31T00:20:33Z",
      "native_id": "MED:42951370",
      "source": "europepmc",
      "url": "https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42951370"
    },
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-02T12:22:01Z",
      "native_id": "PMC13717766",
      "source": "pmc",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/0886022x.2026.2753249"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "openalex:2727|Chronic Kidney Disease and Diabetes",
      "subfield": "general"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Predicting 12- and 24-month documented CKD progression from routine laboratory data: a single-center temporal evaluation.",
  "title_text": "Predicting 12- and 24-month documented CKD progression from routine laboratory data: a single-center temporal evaluation.",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-02T12:22:01Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/f63x99pr95ynn",
  "venue": "Renal failure",
  "versions": []
}